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7 Jul, 9 tweets, 6 min read
(1) Thread 3: Storm #Elsa

Forecast has swung back & forth between Tropical Storm (TS) & Cat 1 Hurricane this week.

Currently 65mph max sustained winds, with a chance of re-intensification. So, the H warnings remain.

#TurnAroundDontDrown
nhc.noaa.gov

🌀❄️👑
(2) By the way, the next names on the Atlantic storms list are #Fred and #Grace. This season is forecast to be above-average in number and intensity of storms.

For now, #Elsa is the only hurricane-ish storm near the USA.

It has not yet made landfall but that's expected today.
(3) As always, excellent coverage on the Weather Channel:

weather.com/storms/hurrica…
(4) The forecast cone has shifted a bit and Elsa is expected to traverse inland GA, SC, NC & VA before hugging the coast all the way through the Maritimes in Canada. Might even show up in Europe, we'll see.
(5) My previous threads on #Elsa are:

Thread #1:

Thread #2:

Some really wide-ranging topics covered in those threads.
(6) TS #Elsa update 8am ET Wednesday:

Still the same max sustained wind speed of 65mph, unchanged from 5am.

While we wait for landfall, note this rain forecast for the entire Eastern seaboard:
(7) 9.22am ET update: #Elsa finally nearing landfall. Pressure dropped to 999mb.

Cedar Key seems to be the place to watch. Currently West of the town, and several weather folk think landfall will be North of it.
(8) Impressive:

(9) #Elsa has made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida.

Details here: weather.com/storms/hurrica…

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Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
7 Jul
(1) A small request if you can help me collate and translate these Latin phrases increasingly used by the far right in the US. First one:

"Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum" or, if you want peace, prepare for war.

Sounds innocuous, doesn't it? Nothing could be further from the truth.
(2) One place to find these phrases is on the social media profile pages of far right activists. That's where I am seeing them.

They're not preparing to lawfully defend their home.

They are preparing for escalating civil unrest and violence, started by the far right.
(3) The evidence for this is abundant, and the process has been ongoing for several years, not just since Trump ran for office, or even the Tea Party movement.

Some say the far right never stopped trying to make this happen, and I think there is some strength to that claim.
Read 4 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
6 Jul
(1) I'm terrible. I can't resist commenting on this viral Lake Lanier video in historical and political context. It's also not particularly hard on the eyes.😉

(2) People enjoy videos like this because of the schadenfreude, especially when college-age kids are involved. A further subset of the schadenfreuders are those who enjoy the misfortune of white people, esp. in GA. Now, hear me out...
(3) I'm just a commentator. I have no axe to grind on behalf of white or black people, or for / against GA. I'm not on the Democrat or Republican side in these things. My focus is always on saving lives. And I don't mean any drownings were likely. It's broader than that.
Read 26 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
6 Jul
Donald Trump is going to get his 3 eldest children thrown in jail & he obviously doesn't care about it.

Tiffany Trump just completed a law degree. I'm starting to understand why. Raised by Marla Maples, Tiffany lives in the real world. Smart woman.

At this point I predict that the only one of them who might flip is Ivanka. Don Jr and Eric clearly aren't smart enough to realize they should, plus: AFAIK they were the signatories on Trump Org checks for 4 years. So their legal jeopardy is kinda similar to their father's.
I've been thinking about this for 6 months now. The only way I can logically explain things like why the Trumps routinely self-incriminate in the media is to look at the culture within the family while these two generations were growing up. Trump has NPD, I think that's clear...
Read 5 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
5 Jul
(1) Thread #7: #SurfsideBuildingCollapse #Surfside #SurfsideStrong

The remaining part of the building was carefully brought down in a controlled demolition last night. A memorial wall established by the public has survived:

palmbeachpost.com/story/news/202… Image
(2) You can find my earlier Surfside threads here:

(3) I am looking to see when the leaders of the response effort will say "search and recovery operation" instead of "rescue," after 12 days.

It will help the grief-stricken families and friends of the deceased, even though some of them may not realize that right now. Image
Read 30 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
4 Jul
(1) This kind of black and white thinking (dichotomous reasoning) by Henry Winkler / The Fonz is why the US is in a crisis right now.

And it's not about a need to "depend on one another again."

Reality is more nuanced and, ironically, more optimistic.
(2) Before seeing this tweet today I had been thinking (since December 2020) that former president Trump is a lot like The Fonz in the 1970s TV show Happy Days.

Seemingly incapable of saying "I was wrong" and "sorry," to anyone, anytime.
(3) The Fonz character was a light hearted parody of those who love themselves more than anyone else, at a time when comedy was comedy and life was life.

We didn't tend to blur the boundaries between entertainment and being empathetic, sane adults.
Read 18 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
4 Jul
(1) Thread 2: Tropical Storm #Elsa

It would be a mistake to treat #TSElsa as if she's a sweet little princess and you can safely #LetItGo.

Even a tropical storm can be deadly like a hurricane. And this one looks like it will hug the coast from Florida to New Jersey, at least.
(2) Here is my first #Elsa thread, complete with shameless repetition of Frozen references, because it's not every day you get a fun storm name to use for a few weeks. Next up are #Fred and #Grace.

(3) TS #Elsa update - Sunday evening

Cautiously optimistic about some nuanced changes to the latest forecast. Looks like Elsa will be a TD (Tropical Depression) while moving NNE after Florida & will veer back out to sea once reaching the mid-Atlantic US coast.
Read 4 tweets

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