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4 Jul, 4 tweets, 3 min read
(1) Thread 2: Tropical Storm #Elsa

It would be a mistake to treat #TSElsa as if she's a sweet little princess and you can safely #LetItGo.

Even a tropical storm can be deadly like a hurricane. And this one looks like it will hug the coast from Florida to New Jersey, at least.
(2) Here is my first #Elsa thread, complete with shameless repetition of Frozen references, because it's not every day you get a fun storm name to use for a few weeks. Next up are #Fred and #Grace.

(3) TS #Elsa update - Sunday evening

Cautiously optimistic about some nuanced changes to the latest forecast. Looks like Elsa will be a TD (Tropical Depression) while moving NNE after Florida & will veer back out to sea once reaching the mid-Atlantic US coast.
(4) Also pleased to see some clearer predictions now about the path, focusing on the South and West coasts of Florida.

As always, if you're in any of the South Eastern states please stay up to date with the official forecasts. Don't rely on a random amateur on Twitter.

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Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
4 Jul
(1) This kind of black and white thinking (dichotomous reasoning) by Henry Winkler / The Fonz is why the US is in a crisis right now.

And it's not about a need to "depend on one another again."

Reality is more nuanced and, ironically, more optimistic.
(2) Before seeing this tweet today I had been thinking (since December 2020) that former president Trump is a lot like The Fonz in the 1970s TV show Happy Days.

Seemingly incapable of saying "I was wrong" and "sorry," to anyone, anytime.
(3) The Fonz character was a light hearted parody of those who love themselves more than anyone else, at a time when comedy was comedy and life was life.

We didn't tend to blur the boundaries between entertainment and being empathetic, sane adults.
Read 18 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
3 Jul
(1) Thread #6: #SurfsideBuildingCollapse

I called it early on. This event has a ripple effect across the US for emergency management, public safety policy, and infrastructure. The "built environment."

My Surfside thread directory:
(2) I'm not "tooting my own horn." I'm doing what anyone else would do when they have information that others might not have, that could save one life, let alone hundreds of lives.

This building collapse is not new or unusual to folk outside the US who witnessed similar events.
(3) It's true that most people would believe "buildings don't just fall down in America," and in most cases, they are right. There are stringent standards and liability laws in the US.

But statistically, someone always lets the side down. It's human nature.
Read 31 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
3 Jul
(1) THREADS DIRECTORY: #SurfsideBuildingCollapse.

I'm here to tell you about New Zealand's response to losing 115 people in the very similar 2011 #CTVBuilding collapse.

I write about emergencies in thread form, for ease of navigation. Only a few end up needing a directory.
(2) I'm not an American but one day I might be. I love the country. NZ & the US are old friends & we should get on better than we do.

Anyway, my first #Surfside thread was limited to concern for those directly affected. Aimed to be free of controversy:

(3) Thread #2 saw me express some righteous anger about those who allow disasters to happen through their own incompetence and recklessness.

It turns out, channeling emotion into showing care for others makes one feel better for at least a while.

Read 6 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
2 Jul
(1) Thread #1: #HurricaneElsa

Last night I almost started this thread as TS #Elsa and I'm glad I didn't.

Now a Cat 1 hurricane, and it's too early to predict much else for FL and surrounding states.

(2) It would be a mistake to treat Hurricane Elsa as if she's a sweet little princess and you can safely #LetItGo.

Even a tropical storm can be deadly like a hurricane.
(3) I've been watching the developing Elsa for about 10 days. Current forecast has the system at hurricane strength through the Caribbean. Fortunately for the USVI and Puerto Rico, passing well to the South of them.

Forecast to become a TS before reaching Florida mid-week.
Read 24 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
1 Jul
(1) #SurfsideBuildingCollapse Thread #5

Well, 5 threads about an event is my personal record & that's going to be broken. I will start a "directory thread" linking them all.

Today, 7/1/2021 marks a turning point for Surfside in several ways.
(2) I predicted last night that the rescue operation was about to become a recovery operation. Today, safety sensors activated & crews had to reluctantly pull back. This happened in the 9/11 recovery op & in the NZ situation. All similar types of events, of different sizes.
(3) Further, the fire chief said that a female voice had been heard in the initial hours after the collapse but they couldn't find or reach her.

This happened in NZ, too. Several people survived the collapse only to die while still trapped. One had been on phone to her husband.
Read 26 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
1 Jul
(1) I cannot think of a mental health diagnosis that would require a previously mentally competent 39 year old woman to have an IUD in her body as contraception, apparently against her wishes. Note I said apparently, because...
(2) I do not have the full information about Britney Spears' case. In the US, as in NZ (where my legal knowledge is greater), there appear to be two types of conservatorship - personal and financial. This is as it should be.

I was concerned to hear about the IUD.
(3) I can understand that a conservator (whether family or professional) might think Britney's health is better served by having an IUD. But such measures are among the most controversial decisions a conservator or court can ever make.

Esp. if it has been in place for 12 years.
Read 21 tweets

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