Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.
Admissions are still accelerating, with 416 reported today.
The 7-day average is 335 - up 57% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 11 days. 1/6
Admissions are still accelerating, with 416 reported today.
The 7-day average is 335 - up 57% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 11 days. 1/6
All English Regions show increases. The most rapid increase is in the South East, where the average has doubled in a week (though small numbers). Other regions increased by 35-75%. 2/6
We put these admissions numbers in context, comparing them to the modelling scenarios provided by SAGE when the roadmap was discussed, in this recent blog by @longevitymatt. 3/6
covid-arg.com/post/a-checkpo…
covid-arg.com/post/a-checkpo…
Hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 has risen by 43% in the last week. It’s the same increase for both mechanical ventilation beds and other beds. 4/6
The age profile of COVID-19 admissions is much younger than during the second wave. Half are now aged below 45, as discussed in our recent blog. This should reduce the in-hospital mortality rate by half, and reduce the average time spent in hospital. 5/6
https://twitter.com/covid19actuary/status/1411688410943733761
Nonetheless, is now clear that COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals are also beginning to rise sharply.
The daily average has increased by 59% in the last week.
The purple estimates are based on the pattern of reporting delays in the last two months. 6/6
The daily average has increased by 59% in the last week.
The purple estimates are based on the pattern of reporting delays in the last two months. 6/6
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