Thread by @COVID19actuary

Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

Admissions are rising sharply. The 7-day average is up to 287 - up by 47% in the last week. 1/n

All English Regions are now showing increases. The most rapid increase in in the South East, where the average has almost doubled in a week (but from small numbers). Other regions increased by 30-60%, except the East where growth is slower. 2/n

Hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 has risen by 29% in the last week, with mechanical ventilation bed occupancy up by 21%. 3/n

For more detailed discussion of the acceleration in hospital admissions in England, see @ActuaryByDay’s blog from Saturday.

covid-arg.com/post/accelerat…

More reassuringly, there has been a dramatic fall in the average age of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital. More than half of the patients are now aged below 45, which will certainly mean fewer fatalities and should also reduce the average time spent in hospital. 5/n

https://twitter.com/covid19actuary/status/1411688410943733761

Daily hospital deaths are still very low so the daily numbers are volatile. There has been no increase in the daily average over the last week.

The purple estimates are based on the pattern of reporting delays in the last two months. 6/n

Despite the rise in hospital admissions, it seems clear Step 4 is likely to go ahead as planned on 19 July. In our new blog @longevitymatt compares actual admissions to modelling that informed the previous delay, to understand how many deaths might arise.
covid-arg.com/post/a-checkpo…