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6 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

Admissions are rising sharply. The 7-day average is up to 310 - up by 52% in the last week. The implied doubling time is 12 days. 1/4
All English Regions are now showing increases. The most rapid increase in in the South East, where the average has more than doubled in a week (but from small numbers). Other regions increased by 30-70%. 2/4
There has been a dramatic fall in the average age of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital. More than half of the patients are now aged below 45, which will certainly mean fewer fatalities and should also reduce the average time spent in hospital. 3/4
Despite the rise in hospital admissions, it seems clear Step 4 is likely to go ahead on 19 July. In our new blog @longevitymatt compares actual admissions to modelling that informed the previous delay, to understand how many deaths might arise. 4/4
covid-arg.com/post/a-checkpo…

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More from @COVID19actuary

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
7 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

Admissions are still accelerating, with 416 reported today.

The 7-day average is 335 - up 57% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 11 days. 1/6
All English Regions show increases. The most rapid increase is in the South East, where the average has doubled in a week (though small numbers). Other regions increased by 35-75%. 2/6
We put these admissions numbers in context, comparing them to the modelling scenarios provided by SAGE when the roadmap was discussed, in this recent blog by @longevitymatt. 3/6

covid-arg.com/post/a-checkpo…
Read 6 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
5 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

Admissions are rising sharply. The 7-day average is up to 287 - up by 47% in the last week. 1/n Image
All English Regions are now showing increases. The most rapid increase in in the South East, where the average has almost doubled in a week (but from small numbers). Other regions increased by 30-60%, except the East where growth is slower. 2/n Image
Hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 has risen by 29% in the last week, with mechanical ventilation bed occupancy up by 21%. 3/n Image
Read 7 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
2 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

Admissions are rising sharply again with another jump today to 331. This takes the daily average to 244 - up by 30% in the last week. 1/n
This is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions. With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, it probably understates R slightly.

This shows that the rate of increase in admissions is itself increasing - admissions are accelerating. 2/n
Almost all English regions are now showing strong increases in hospital admissions over the past week, the exception being the East of England. 3/n
Read 8 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
30 Jun
Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

Admissions are rising sharply again after a few days of slower increases. The recent growth rate implies a doubling time of around one month.

As ever the regional analysis (below) helps explain the national picture. 1/4
This chart is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions.

With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, this probably understates R slightly.

This shows that the rate of increase in admissions had been falling, but is now increasing again. 2/4
Looking at the regions, it’s NE & Yorkshire and the Midlands driving the national growth, with South East and South West also increasing rapidly but from a lower base.

North West and London both look flat over the week but the pattern was a short term dip then an increase. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
28 Jun
As South Africa announces new restrictions in the face of a resurgence of cases, @lrossouw compares the third waves emerging in SA and the UK. Both countries face a sharp increase in cases, but SA also has surging hospital admissions, and excess deaths.
covid-arg.com/post/a-tale-of…
The delta variant now looks dominant in both countries, though sequencing in South Africa is more limited.

The difference between the UK and SA third waves is vaccines, with minimal rollout in SA. With so few people vaccinated, more caution could have been applied before now. Image
In May 2020 the worst scenario projected by @imperialcollege showed 216,000 deaths in South Africa. With 173,000 excess deaths to date, and a severe third wave underway, that figure might be exceeded this year. Image
Read 6 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
11 Feb
Thursday update on COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths in England continues to show an improving picture.

7-day moving average for hospital admissions continues to fall. Possible sign that fall may be accelerating - vaccines?

The regional picture is analysed below. 1/4 Image
Our estimate of R, based on hospital admissions is at 0.73 and looks like it may be starting to fall further. That will be a sign that vaccines have broken the link between infections and admissions and it’s time to discontinue this approach to R estimation. 2/4 Image
Hospital deaths are falling rapidly and are now well below the first wave peak. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets

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