Thread by @EdConwaySky

Been a week and a bit since I did a COVID data update. Tbh the pattern is broadly the same as it was then: cases & hospitalisations growing. Both a bit faster than two weeks ago. But the link between them remains much weaker than in previous waves

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1408489364452167693

Last time around we looked at the growth rate in cases and saw that if that continued it would mean 40k plus daily cases by “Freedom Day” July 19.
As you can see, that line is steeper. Points towards a higher level.
Current extrapolation suggests maybe 80/90k…

But hospitalisations are still broadly in line with that extrapolated line from a couple of weeks back. Ie heading up but less rapidly than cases. Where are they by 19 July? On basis of past fortnight’s daily growth rate, still 500-600. On basis of past week, 600-700.

Here’s a version of the above with logarithmic axes, for more of a sense of growth rates (with log scales, the steeper the line, the faster the growth rate).
Or to put it another way,
Doubling times over past week
Cases: 9 days
Hospitalisations: 16 days

Yes, *technically* admissions are still growing exponentially.
Extrapolate admissions onwards and you get 4,200 daily admissions by late Aug - the same as the winter peak.
Scary! But only until you realise that by then the extrapolated Covid rate would be 20m new cases A DAY 🤔

Eg while these extrapolations are useful for a while, at some point cases will peak. Question is when. Which is why epidemiologists like those at SPI-M, or modellers like @JamesWard73 are worth following. Early signals are promising but we’re still heading into the unknown.

Final updated chart is cases vs deaths, with deaths adjusted 14 days so you can see the correlation during the winter wave(s) and the comparative lack of correlation this time around. Deaths are rising. But it’s very, VERY gradual.

So. There is nothing *surprising* per se in the data.
Where we are today is broadly where the growth rates were pushing us a couple of weeks back.
Which is to say, in case terms we’re in the early swells of another big wave of #COVID19.
But focusing purely on cases is misleading.

NB there are many consequences of high #COVID19 cases that don’t show up in hospitalisation/deaths data. Long covid, for instance. So this isn’t the full story.
Even so, seeing those red/blue lines continuing to diverge is encouraging. Let’s hope it continues! 🤞