Thread by @Usherwood

Only a limited number of ways this could go

1/

Most benignly, the govt offers to work fully within the NIP, with the EU to resolve issue, and leaves it at that

This is unlikely, esp. given that mention of a 'new balance'

2/

Option 2 is to say they'll stick with the current text, but work to build further extensions/grace periods/non-applications to smooth the path

Again, not very likely

3/

Option 3 is to ask formally for a renegotiation of the NIP

More likely, although unclear there's a clear alternative text to promote right now

4/

Finally, option 4 would be to talk about Art.16/binning NIP completely: general walk-away stuff

Possible, but again, no alternative in place

5/

Pointedly, I've not talked about EU response (which'll be v.frosty to anything other than option 1), not least because UK govt still seems to have failed to recognise that EU matters in this

6/

tl;dr I'll be surprised if this turns out to help move things along in any constructive kind of way

More info here: definitely not going to work (as the EU has indicated repeatedly for months now)

A couple of comments

Equivalence is a problem because it's not dynamic: standards might be equivalent now, but how to you police any changes?

Also, the EU's precautionary model makes it really hard to build in any flexibility

Also, we should be concerned about Frost's querying of the externality of the border: NIP might bring NI into single mkt/CU, but there's still a clear step out to the world and that's not going to change, unless UK govt policy moves

Essentially, this all looks like @StevePeers's response to my original thread

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1413102899962449920?s=20