Thread by @apsmunro

Already people are misunderstanding the new paper showing extremely low risk of children from #COVID19

The paper reports both the population risk to children, AND the infection risk

It also massively *overestimates* the infection risk to children

1/
researchsquare.com/article/rs-689…

The study uses PHE modelling data on infection rates, as case data over the year is unreliable (we tested only people who were admitted to hospital during the first wave)

Through this, they estimate just short of 500,000 infections

This is a massive underestimate

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We can get a better estimate of total infections by measuring seroprevalence - who has positive antibodies

By July last year, 4% of children were positive - that is already nearly 500,000 BEFORE the second wave

3/
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

We don't yet have good current estimates for kids, but for 16 - 25yo it was well over 30% by Feb 2021

Likely to be a bit less for children under 16, but 20% of the population is a very conservative estimate

20% of 12mil is 2.4mil children infected

4/

25 deaths from 2.4 million infections is an Infection Fatality Ratio of 0.001%

This is 5 times less than the IFR quoted in the study

So far from making it look lower risk, the study actually makes it look higher risk for children than it is

Good news! Let's embrace it!

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