Israeli MoH telegram channel [1]

bottom left figure (all ages):
%vax in cases very similar to %vax in population while %recovered in cases much lower than in population (835K/9.2M, 9%, but see next) >>

Trans. @RanIsraeli
[1] t.me/s/MOHreport
Look for the file תמצ קורונה
So

* immunity of recovered is much more stronger, long lasting and robust, than that of vaccination.

* should reduce few cases in unvax group (those unvax & recovered, b/c I compare to unvax & not recovered), thus slightly decrease base rate and VE, but I think it's negligible.
Look at the top right graph.
Does the reason that % of ultra-orthodox people in cases (1%) is much lower than their % in population (about 12%), is the high percent of recovered there?

(officially 30% of them are confirmed cases. The true number can be 50% or more)
Of course those numbers have many biases. e.g. if the ultra-orthodox stopped collaborating with mass testing. We'll be smarter on the next month, to see if it's really not spreading in their communities (no hospitalizations and deaths)
Now we do have the number of cases for unvax & not recovered, which is almost the same as the total number of unvax (because reinfection is negligible).
I also don't know where they assign recovered and one dose: in recovered or in partly vax?

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More from @MatanHolzer

8 Jul
Methodology and sources:

upper figure - cases for vax and unvax. The two rightmost columns here
data.gov.il/dataset/covid-…
Then, vax status.
Go here (data pulled from Israeli MoH "dashboard").
github.com/dancarmoz/isra…
Sum accumulated # 2nd vax number 20 days ago over 20-59 age groups. let's call it A.
Sum pop over 20-59 age groups, let's call it B.
A/B is %vax 2nd dose >= days ago.
Read 22 tweets
30 Jun
Vaccine Efficiency over time in Israel by age groups.

Thanks epidemiologist @prof_shahar for scientific consulting.

Discussion in comments. >>

Source:
Israeli government database:
data.gov.il/dataset/covid-…
cases for vax and unvax: אימותים לאחר חיסון
% vax: גילאי המתחסנים Image
Quick recap of vaccine efficiency: Image
The true values of # vax, # unvax are known, hence we have odds(vaccination status).

But # infected&vax, infected&unvax for groups whose all parameters being equal is unknown.
We do have number of confirmed cases in each group. Is it a reliable measurement?
Read 23 tweets
29 Jun
Israel last month data of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated confirmed cases numbers.
(last week is not available now. TBD)

source: Israeli government database
data.gov.il/dataset/covid-… ImageImageImageImage
what does it imply?
if all other parameters (testing policy and rate, exposure rate - e.g. who travel abroad more, etc.) being equal between the vax & unvax groups, that implies that vaccine does not prevent infection (defined as "being confirmed by PCR"), if not the opposite.
Of course I can't ensure that.
Basically, without equalizing all relevant parameters all this numbers are statistically/scientifically meaningless.

Same is true for the Israeli studies that showed prevention based on those numbers without equalization.
It works both sides...
Read 4 tweets
8 May
והנה עכשיו גם ה NYT, ובעקבותיו טופול (בקרוב נדב איל?), מבינים שעיקר ההדבקה בקורונהוירוס היא אירוסולית, ולכן עיקר המשחק פה הוא להעביר מפגשים לאוויר הפתוח, ו-ונטילציה טובה של חללים סגורים.
אדרבה, היא אומרת, סגירת הפארקים רק גרמה נזק.

They're measuring their own measures
דבר נוסף שעולה בכתבה הוא שגופי הבריאות המקצועיים (דוגמת WHO) קולטים את הסיטואציה מאוד לאט ומתקשים לשנות פרדיגמה

תומס קון איפה אתה?
he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%94%D7…
ה"קונספירטורים" - לא אני - יאמרו שההמלצות האלו אף פעם (או לפחות החל מנקודת זמן מסוימת בתחילת המגפה כשהדברים התבהרו) לא היו מטעמים מדעיים, אלא מטעמי שליטה בציבור...
Read 4 tweets
7 May
A funny story of a doctor from the "covid is end of the world" cult @meganranney, telling us a lot about who actually are "the experts" and the media ignorance >>
In an interview in CNN, she claimed that half (!) of the covid deaths now are young adults 18-35 of age
(1:55). That's of course because they are not vaccinated enough


Needless to say, the suited, well brushed host didn't question any of that.
Read 15 tweets
6 May
את סימני ירידת האסימון ראינו אצל זה שהקרח שלא מודע לקרחותו (אם נזהרים מלצלם מלמעלה) מגדיר כ"אנליסט בלתי תלוי", בימים האחרונים
עכשיו גם המאסטר עצמו מדבר
themarker.com/amp/news/healt…
התשובות שלו מתחלקות בסהכ ל 4 סוגים

א'. המשך המגבלות מספיק (הסברים 1-2 שלו, מסכות ותו ירוק)
ב'. ילדים אינם מנוע הדבקה אלא תוצאה משנית של המבוגרים (הסברים 3-4)
ג'. חסינות עדר באוכלוסיית הילדים (5)
ד'. תחלואה סמויה (6)
ה'. מזל (7)
א' מגוחך. הוא חושב שהם לא נפגשים אחר כך? או שמגבלות האלו הספיקו בכל נקודת זמן בשנה האחרונה? בליצר מדען מאוד גרוע.
ד' לא סביר, בודקים המון, היו יודעים
ה' - טוב אחי.
נשארו ב' וג'. לג' אפשר להוסיף אפקט עונתי.
כתבתי על זה בזמנו
Read 5 tweets

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