Thread by @morcos_pierre

My @CSIS colleague @cy_newlin and I have a new piece out today on #cyber. As the Biden administration is resuming its cyber dialogue with Moscow, France has some interesting lessons to share from its own experience with Russia. A thread 👇

csis.org/analysis/cyber…

In a bid for increased transparency and predictability with Russia, France initiated in 2018 several channels of dialogue: a confidential “deconfliction line” to discuss cyber incidents, as well as broader diplomatic consultations.

France essentially pursued three objectives: (1) addressing in a direct and confidential manner cyberattacks originating in Russia; (2) better understanding Russian cyber doctrine and apparatus; (3) engaging with Russia on norms of responsible behavior in cyberspace.

Of course, France has been under no illusion that this dialogue will meaningfully alter Russian destabilizing behavior. Paris has paired engagement with a more forceful approach to exposing Russian cyberattacks and imposing diplomatic costs on Moscow.

Four lessons can be learned from the French experience. First, communication must be carefully controlled. Moscow will seek to formalize any format of consultation and will attempt to leverage any public communication to its advantage.

Second, cyber talks must bring all relevant stakeholders to the table. France was careful to conduct its diplomatic dialogue with Moscow in a large interagency format. This is key notably when it comes to discussing Russia’s offensive cyber actions.

Third, expectations should be kept realistic. Setting the bar too high in a cyber dialogue with Russia is a recipe for failure. At this stage, Russia has few incentives to make serious concessions. Any cyber dialogue with Moscow should have well-tailored objectives.

Fourth, allies should be informed to the maximum extent possible. Even though these cyber consultations are confidential given the sensitive nature of the matter, a minimum transparency toward NATO allies is paramount to preserve the transatlantic cohesion on this issue.

Of course, Washington will have its own challenges to overcome. The political sensitivity of the issue is significantly higher in the United States. A 🇺🇸🇷🇺 cyber dialogue will also need to be deconflicted from a parallel strategic stability dialogue.

Despite some obvious limitations, engaging 🇷🇺 on cyber is still necessary. As explained by @DAlperovitch and @MatthewRojansky, the success of such dialogue “comes from adopting a focused agenda, clear conditionality and direct, private communication”.

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…

Many thanks to @james_a_lewis for his great insights. This piece might of interest to @NicolePerlroth, @etaylaw, @SpauldingSez, @martin_u, @sultanofcyber, @C_Painter, @nakashimae, @staillat, @drbvaler, @jonrlindsay, @Jason_Healey, @JonKBateman, @SangerNYT, @KimZetter or @dnvolz.