Raper Capital Origin Story, pt 4. We have arrived at 2017.
I had moved back to buyside (in London) to get more experience so performance is simply static long book only (essentially forced to close short book and no new trading)...bit boring 😰
Still there are lessons to be had. 2017 was a v good yr for the mkt - SPX +19% - and a good yr to run naked long. I did pretty well - +21%, 2.2 Sharpe, mirrored the mkt but a touch better:
I was running v concentrated w chunky positions in $AER, $5184.T (Nichirin), $TFG.NA and $TOWR so there was a bit of vol mid year but ultimately returns were worthwhile (ball only dropped on $AER in 2018...)
There wasn't much rocket science in 2017...
$TOWR was a fairly cyclical middling biz at a v cheap price that I thought was on the cusp of big-time capital returns and or getting taken out. I wrote it up on SA so you can dig that up if you like...
It turned out to be a false dawn as they hung the for-sale sign up and then took it down (only to end up selling the biz a year or so later after I exited). But the stock still did fine.
$AER did fine, too, amidst buoyant mkt conditions, as did Nichirin etc.
My abiding memories of 2017 were unease (being naked long), worry (being unable to trade actively), and frustration (working for someone else and not being my own boss).
At the fund I spent time mostly on 🇯🇵 situations...many of which were shorts + which I couldn't have in PA 😰
Still, I learnt alot about European stocks (the fund's main focus, outside of Japan) and broadened my 'intellectual toolkit'...such as it was.
But looking back 2017 was a fairly uneventfully positive year. Rare, in our chosen line of work. I wish I had more like this!
Four yr summary thru 2017 to catch you up:
2014: +119% vs SPX +12%
2015: +39% vs SPX -1%
2016: +1% vs SPX +10%
2017: +21% vs SPX +19%
w a cumulative +271% vs SPX +46% and a 1.53 Sharpe (measured daily over 4yrs). Not bad.
Stay tuned for the annus horribilis that was 2018 😱😱
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The amount of value you can find when you go down the mkt cap curve is fairly astonishing. Today's eg: The Works, $WRKS.LN, a UK-listed games retailer at <2.5x pre-COVID EV/EBITDA - w no debt.
As always the goal is to find situations where it's v difficult to lose $$
🧵🧵
If you look up 'world's best businesses' you won't find $WRKS.LN looking back at you but that's not what this is about. Post restructuring in 08 the concept has successfully grown to 500 stores, generated ~220mm GBP revs pre-COVID, and put up ~13mm in EBITDA:
Today's mkt cap is ~34mm GBP so ~2.5x EV/EBITDA. Note this biz was putting up positive LfLs, successively, pre COVID and growing the concept (toys/games/gifts, kinda like $FIVE in the US).
Ie this is not some left-for-dead shrinking concept.
It's been a little while so let's catch up on a few ideas. Am not going to cover every detail but will give thoughts on a few live situations I've tweeted about in the last few months (in no particular order).
Unless otherwise disclosed I'm long all these names, DYODD 👇👇
🧵
1) Cambria Auto, $CAMB.LN. See original 🧵 below.
Looks like Lavery is gonna steal the co for 80p but not yet confirmed. Am voting NO, but given capitulation of other holders + bullshit workaround he pulled on board it seems tough.
Assuming it gets done at 80p, this will simply be a sub-par outcome but - given entry in mid-high 70s - certainly not a disaster and a positive return. Still, will likely leave a bad taste in the mouth 🤮🤮
Entering 2016 I was pretty confident. Now in Singapore, I had put up v high, and uncorrelated, returns thru 2014/2015, and built my capital base substantially. But it was still subscale and one goal I had in 2016 was to 'bootstrap' my own fund launch...
Unfort it all went a bit pear-shaped in 2016. Here's how I did: +1.3% vs SPX +10%, so first year of underperformance. Sharpe collapsed to objectionable levels (0.2). I got hurt badly on shorts this year (3 out of 5 top losers were shorts):
2015 was a very different kind of year to 2014. Obviously the SPX went down (-1% but still down). I had moved from NYC to Singapore so my natural focus also shifted back to Asia, and in particular, Japanese stocks.
Shorting saved me in 2015, bigly. Here's how it went...
+39% vs SPX -1%, so obvi still a good outcome but it felt very hard at the time. My Sharpe fell, substantially, to 1.6 and I suffered a number of sizable drawdowns...making the yr much trickier:
For the sake of total clarity, this was a JOKE. I was not +850% in 1H...but I appreciate all the (undeserved) 💕
Tbh I'm not really a fan of posting recent, out-of-context PnL. But I am a fan of looking back on past performance and trying to learn the right lessons...
So I'm introducing a new segment, the 'Raper Capital Origin Story', pt1. if this is wildly unpopular it may prove to be part 1/1. Otherwise I will do these occasionally ad hoc.
Let's start at the beginning - 2014. I had just left a HF job (long/short credit), and was in NYC...
...having worked in finance for ~6yrs at the time (and invested PA for 12-13yrs at that point). But this was the first yr i attempted to 'prove' i could make it as a full-time investor.
My initial account was not large (sub 7 figs). Ie I needed to make big bets (fine w me!)...
Hunter Douglas UPDATE $HDG.NA. Great news as acquirer formally drops squeeze out after tender ends w/ abysmally low participation (23% of minorities at 82 EUR).
The go-forward setup is, I think, the is best risk/reward I have seen, in my history in the markets. Why?
👇👇
What did we learn from the tender process?
- the 84% shareholder wanted to pay 82 EUR to acquire all minorities
- a Minority Group consisting of 45% of minorities thought fair value was 150-200 EUR/share
- Add Value fund, a key minority, thinks fair value is 160->200 EUR/share
What else did the tender accomplish?
- Everyone who wanted to sell anywhere near the current price (ie 82), sold. This was ~1.3mm shares
- All other sizeable shareholders of record think fair value is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than current. Not 10%, 20%, - more than DOUBLE....