It's been a little while so let's catch up on a few ideas. Am not going to cover every detail but will give thoughts on a few live situations I've tweeted about in the last few months (in no particular order).
Unless otherwise disclosed I'm long all these names, DYODD ๐๐
๐งต
Unless otherwise disclosed I'm long all these names, DYODD ๐๐
๐งต
1) Cambria Auto, $CAMB.LN. See original ๐งต below.
Looks like Lavery is gonna steal the co for 80p but not yet confirmed. Am voting NO, but given capitulation of other holders + bullshit workaround he pulled on board it seems tough.
Looks like Lavery is gonna steal the co for 80p but not yet confirmed. Am voting NO, but given capitulation of other holders + bullshit workaround he pulled on board it seems tough.
https://twitter.com/puppyeh1/status/1387581345396772868
Assuming it gets done at 80p, this will simply be a sub-par outcome but - given entry in mid-high 70s - certainly not a disaster and a positive return. Still, will likely leave a bad taste in the mouth ๐คฎ๐คฎ
2) Hunter Douglas $HDG.NA. Latest ๐งต here, and also pls check my various letters to board discussing situation on Rapercapital.com๐
https://twitter.com/puppyeh1/status/1405856919697313792
$HDG.NA has rallied to 91 but here I think its ~4.5x CY EV/EBITDA w/ basically no debt vs basically every other building supply name of direct or indirect relevance trading north of 10x EV/EBITDA. Most direct comps trade in the teens EV/EBITDA...
...so the relative valuation gap remains, lets say, gargantuan.
How do we get paid? I still expect successive blowout results in Q2, Q3, and (prob) Q4. I would not be surprised to see Sonnenberg come back w another bid next April. Meanwhile the stock is v tightly held...
How do we get paid? I still expect successive blowout results in Q2, Q3, and (prob) Q4. I would not be surprised to see Sonnenberg come back w another bid next April. Meanwhile the stock is v tightly held...
...mostly by those who think its worth 170-200 EUR. I can't see how - absent a market crash - the stock trades materially below 82 EUR, knowing the 88% owner is a buyer there.
So yes its moved but still seems the superior high-beta R/R in mid-caps globally, to me...
So yes its moved but still seems the superior high-beta R/R in mid-caps globally, to me...
...given 5-10 EUR/shr down, 70-100 EUR up type setup.
I do not expect the stock to be sub 100 EUR after Q2, and likely keeps grinding higher after that. By far my largest position.
I do not expect the stock to be sub 100 EUR after Q2, and likely keeps grinding higher after that. By far my largest position.
3) $SIO.AX, Simonds Group. Aussie deep value special sit housing play. See here for original thoughts ๐
Also on VIC for the full w/up:
valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Simonds_Gโฆ
https://twitter.com/puppyeh1/status/1402225965426565121
Also on VIC for the full w/up:
valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Simonds_Gโฆ
Nothing has changed. Stock +10% but basically illiquid so rounding error volumes. FY earnings in Aug should provide more evidence of fundamental turnaround. Other Aussie homebuilders have reported strong results; new COVID outbreak means RBA on hold indefinitely...
...so I am not worried about the fundamentals near-term. All about patience and allowing McDonald/Simonds relationship to play out. I expect (hope?) this will be resolved sometime in next 6mos (given market trends + need to compete in Victoria).
This has been quite disappointing as spread has widened ~5pts since I published. Not much seems to be going on - fundamental HK investors appear unwilling to own same stock at 45% effective discount ๐ฅด
Am being patient for now. Apparently the D-share Borse is in financial trouble and could be wound down; if that happens its quite likely v positive for the D-shares (forced conversion or buyback at premium). Meanwhile the parent co now has the ability to buyback D-shares...
...which they only added to their HK-listing docs a month ago. So I'm giving this another 6mos...
5) Mobruk $MBR.PW. Stock maybe -10%, incl div, since I wrote up on SA. Still a core position. Has been some negative regulatory noise but nothing thesis changing. 1Q nos were bullet proof. Still expect secular re-rating over time.
seekingalpha.com/article/441577โฆ
seekingalpha.com/article/441577โฆ
6) Automatic Bank Services, $SHVA.TA. Total return +15% since I posted on SA:
seekingalpha.com/article/440789โฆ
seekingalpha.com/article/440789โฆ
...But if anything better bargain now. 1Q was v strong (strong op leverage) despite ongoing COVID impact. Card usage in ๐ฎ๐ฑ has exploded in recent months (Apple Pay launch, etc), and this stock is at barely 10x EV/EBITDA and will grow teens+ for a long time. Core position.
7) Harbor Diversified $HRBR. @twoandtwenty_ did a great job unpacking it and is more up-to-date than my original discussion on @BillBrewsterSCG pod. I will prob unpack my thoughts a bit more in a separate thread at some point but it is very asymmetric, even in the mid $2s range..
...given I think even a worst worsr case scenario in 2023 gets you something between 2.1-2.3 a share, whilst a variety of going concern scenarios net you from $4ish a share to $7+ a share...without accounting for buybacks in the interim.
8) other stuff. Ideally will have one new idea up on SA in coming days, and maybe one or two new idea tweet threads here too in next week or so.
If you made it this far - ๐ for all your support, GLTA, and happy investing ๐๐
If you made it this far - ๐ for all your support, GLTA, and happy investing ๐๐
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