Thread by @JesseJenkins

The @Energy Department is targeting vastly cheaper energy storage solutions for "long duration" applications (days, weeks). @bradplumer reports for @nytimes drawing on my recent @NatureEnergyJnl paper led by @nsepulvedam nyti.ms/36ONpc1

For more: nature.com/articles/s4156…

DOE's new "Earthshot" aims to drop the cost of "long duration" storage 90% below cost of current Lithium ion batteries, the dominant grid storage option today, by 2030.

Lazard pegs cost of large 100s MWh scale Li-ion installations at $163-309/kWh so DOE target is ~$15-30/kWh.

And by "long duration", DOE means any technology technically and economically suited to >10 hours of sustained discharge.

Those targets for both duration and cost will move the needle, but based on our research, they are probably not aggressive enough.

In our @NatureEnergyJnl paper, we find that energy capacity cost is key and needs to be in the $1-10/kWh range and supply 100+ hours of sustained discharge to have a big impact for most potential combos of other design parameters (eg efficiency, power costs).

Reaching $15-30/kWh is close and could open up initial markets for long duration storage, but further cost decline would be important thereafter. So that should represent the start but now the floor for future feasible costs of viable long duration energy storage techs.

While 10+ hours duration exceeds current Li-ion installs & enables some useful diurnal cycling, there's a much smaller value proposition for this niche + it's much more open to competition from Li-ion, for which costs will keep being driven down by much larger EV battery market.

So if I were advising DOE -- or long duration storage companies -- I'd say focus on low end of the Earthshot target (~$15/kWh) for your Nth of a kind cost, and ensure there's runway to fall further with experience curves, and to focus on techs suites to days not hours of duration

For more, see the 1 page summary of our @NatureEnergyJnl paper here bit.ly/LDES_summary and stay tuned for more from @nsepulvedam and I on this topic soon...

/End

p.s. this is an excellent resource on long-duration storage as well

https://twitter.com/lisahymas/status/1415328015345614854