Interesting and valuable graphic and the article is even better — kudos to @LongWarJournal @billroggio ... but it’s a bit misleading to start the clock on the Afghan war in April 2021. It would be more illuminating to show the trends over the last several years leading to now
The Taliban’s strength did not spring up de novo in April 2021 after the US announced withdrawal. Years of Taliban advances have led to this moment. The hollowness of the Afghan government and security forces is striking despite 20 years of US assistance
It’s a good graphic and article, but I am disappointed in a larger trend in reporting and commentary about the Taliban’s recent gains since April that gloss over the Taliban’s gains over the last several years that have led to this moment
If the only thing that was holding back a Taliban advance like this was the perception of US support then things were already quite bad off.
If after 20 years of US assistance the Afghan security forces cannot hold this territory, I would like to see more critical analysis questioning the assumption that staying would achieve a different long term outcome. Or is the idea that we stay in Afghanistan indefinitely?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Paul Scharre

Paul Scharre Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @paul_scharre

29 Sep 20
Two trends at work here:

1) Diminishing value of armor (protection). Armor alone is not enough to protect tanks. Need APS, concealment, ... layered defenses.

2) Drones lower the bar for airpower

Both trends are underappreciated by the US military [THREAD]
This article by @TheEconomist @shashj get it right: "We’re reaching the apex of the armour versus gun race—and armour has lost that race." Armor alone is not enough in an era of precision-guided anti-tank munitions

economist.com/science-and-te…
This trend has been building for a long time. The steady proliferation of ATGMs is a real threat to armor. Drones complicate the equation b/c can attack from above where armor is thinnest.

Tanks won't go away, but survivability will depend on more than just armor.
Read 10 tweets
26 Sep 20
Some quick thoughts on the DoD's 500+ ship Navy draft plans and "unmanned" (uninhabited) systems
[THREAD]

per story by @DavidLarter & @AaronMehta @defense_news

defensenews.com/naval/2020/09/…
First off, the 500+ ship Navy plans are less crazy than they sound because they count uninhabited (“unmanned”) ships, which account for the bulk of the new ships. The # of crewed large surface combatants stay roughly the same.
There’s room to debate the specific #s of the plans, but the broad outlines of the plans make sense in terms of the “manned-unmanned mix” of the fleet. They're headed in the right direction.
Read 23 tweets
25 Sep 20
Serious question for journo & tech colleagues -- why isn't there a micropayments model for reading online content a la carte?

I'm a huge believer in "pay the writer." I believe writers (and outlets) should be paid for content. But why are the only $ models subscriptions or ads?
There are maybe 1-2 outlets I read enough to justify a monthly subscription, from which I get most of my news. But I read some very specific writers from a range of outlets, but just those individuals. I would be *happy* to micro-pay per article for their stuff.
For me, personally, I want to read everything by @Kate_OKeeffe @BethanyAllenEbr @_KarenHao @willknight @tsimonite but I'm probably not going to read everything on @WSJ @axios @techreview @WIRED outlets overall ... plus, it starts to add up!
Read 5 tweets
22 Sep 20
This article by @Aviation_Intel absolutely *nails it* in diagnosing what's wrong with how DoD builds things & how to fix it. This is much bigger than NGAD.

He's talking about aircraft, but the same problems apply across DoD.
It's not about acquisition reform, or at least not as we normally think of it. This is about a radical transformation in how DoD builds complex systems, a transformation that is long overdue.
@Aviation_Intel:
"we are talking about an ecosystem of networked platforms that will share modular sensors and a common communications architecture here, not a new super fighter"
Read 6 tweets
17 Sep 20
This is a convenient lie the Pentagon has told itself to excuse two decades of investing in legacy, wasting assets. It's embarrassing to see the Secretary of Defense repeat it.
From 2001 to 2008, the base (non-war) budgets of the Navy and Air Force grew 22% and 27%, respectively, adjusted for inflation.

Meanwhile, the number of combat ships and aircraft in the U.S. inventory declined by 10% for ships and nearly 20% for aircraft over the same period.
# of combat a/c went down, while the Air Force's base (non-war) budget went up in real dollars
Read 15 tweets
24 Aug 20
Interesting threads from @YunaHuhWong & @Fermat15 on how the lack of observability of AI military capabilities might affect deterrence and stability.

TL;DR - I don't know the answer but it's a very interesting question [THREAD]
@YunaHuhWong argues that uncertainty about adversaries' AI capabilities (and the tendency to over-estimate others' capabilities) may enhance deterrence and lead to greater stability
@Fermat15 suggests the opposite, that the lack of clarity regarding relative military capabilities increases the risk of miscalculation and instability
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(