Yesterday I was delighted to join an Aspen Italia/@Russian_Council roundtable on Russia & EU, with @martadassu @DmitriTrenin, Andrei Kortunov, Pasquale Terracciano et al. The following thread summarises some of what I said, on why Russia-EU relations are unlikely to improve. /1
Russia is locked into a gentle economic decline, because its leaders don't want to move away from dependency on natural resource exports, or improve rule of law. As Europe cuts demand for oil & gas, Russia will lose some bargaining power. Standards of living are falling. /2
But Russia faces no awful economic shock. And its leaders probably believe that their illiberal vision of society, focused on God, family & ethnicity, is winning out against the decadent miscegenating godless West. So they see no urgent need to patch things up with EU or US. /3
The price the West would set for a rapprochement - a compromise on Donbass, and better behaviour in terms of Skripals, Navalny, cyber-attacks etc - is not acceptable to Putin. Which is why EU govts cannot detect any willingness on Russia's part to settle the Ukraine conflict. /4
The EU will stick to its '5 principles' for dealing with Russia: implementation of the Minsk accords on Ukraine (it knows Kiev is not fulfilling its side of bargain); strengthening Eastern Partnership; strengthening resilience v Russian aggro; support for Russian civil society;/5
and selective engagement with Russia on certain topics eg Iran, health, energy, climate. On the last of those, the EU's imminent carbon border adjustment mechanism will greatl annoy the Russians - Russian exports will face tariffs. /6
.@EmmanuelMacron & Merkel still want a broader strategic dialogue and recently tried to restore regular EU-Russia summits. For Macron it is geopolitical, wanting to pull R from China's embrace. For Merkel it is more about trade and the special R-G rel that goes back to WW2. /7
The EU said no to meeting Putin because Macron & Merkel failed to prepare the ground and because others didn't want summits sans R giving something. The EU in fact divides into many camps on how to handle Russia: a) the French geopolitical school - be tough but always talk; /8
b) the 'Wandel durch Handel' school - trade with R so it behaves better. This is Germany, Austria, Italy, Finland etc; c) the Southern Europeans who believe human rights should not be important in foreign policy; d) the North European school which thinks h rights do matter - /9
Balts & some Central Europeans like Poland and Czechs agree; e) Hungary - Orban is ideologically aligned with Putin's illiberal worldview. But despite these divisions & the fact that about a third of member-states really don't like sanctions on Russia, EU sanctions will stay. /10
This is because Russian conduct (eg on Navalny or Belarus) makes it impossible for its friends in EU to argue for lifting them. Even Orban doesn't veto sanctions renewal. Another factor is the US: Biden's lobbying is more effective in more capitals than was Trump's. /11
Plus FRA & GER, though they want dialogue, are firm on Ukraine, which is the reason for the sanctions. Russia dislikes EU sanctions but not that much. If Putin wanted, he cd probably get them lifted by appearing to compromise on Donbass; then one EU state would veto renewal./12
In long term, rapprochement with West is unlikely - partly because values matter to both Western leaders and Putin, and that reduces willingness of either to compromise. That fact, plus its economic woes, mean that Russia will drift gradually into Sinosphere. /13
For Russia, close ties to China are a lesser evil than paying the price for Western friendship. Moscow and Beijing agree on spheres of influence, illiberalism & opposing US hegemony. US officials say R-Ch co-op on technology, military issues and diplomacy is closer than ever. /14
I don't think Macron can pull R from Ch's embrace. Russian speakers argued strongly that R was not in the Sinosphere, and that a fundamental principle of its foreign policy was to avoid being junior partner to anyone. Russia would maintain the freedom to act how it saw fit. /15
I am sure that is the Russian desire but can a country with such problematic economic prospects continue to act as a quasi-superpower, on its own? The same question could be put to the Brits, but even the most patriotic Tories don't really see the UK as a superpower. ENDS
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