Sigh - this was not how I hoped the #Covid19Ireland Cautious Reopening plot would end but the last 3 case dots tell a story thats sadly unmistakable - adding as the final red dots
1183 cases is 187% of last Friday
79 hospital, 158% last Friday
23 ICU, 153% last Friday
/1
What happens next will be tracked on the Precarious Exit plot which has not improved since yesterday, indeed the 5306 cases this week being 151% of the previous week is. a lot worse, I'll show how much in the next 2 tweets /2
I've been tracking what percentage of cases end up in hospitals and what percentage of those go to ICU. As the force of infection increased these have got a lot worse, 2.5% cases hospitalised & almost 15% of those going to ICU when you account for lag effects. /3
At the current growth rate with cases of each week as 151% previous by end Sept a total of 950k cases, 24k hospitalisations & 3500 ICU admissions. Wk by wk it looks like this;
5306
8012
12098
18268
27585
41654
62897
94974
143411
216551
326992
/4
Those numbers sound so bad they can't be true - but the north has been following an even worse track since it opened indoor hospitality on May 24th & my mid June projections seemed unbelievable but are now being realised. Delta is a disaster basically /5
Over the last two days the north lost the race to vaccinate, on both those days more people were infected than got a 1st dose. The south has not lost that ratio war yet, its almost at 50 to 1 today but by mid August we will also have more infections
This math is the reason the HSE decided to burn through the buffer stock of Pfizer & why NIAC changed its AZ & Janssen recommendations. Basically by September almost every adult is getting immunity the easy way through vaccination or the hard way through surviving infection /7
Towards the start of September hospitalisations overwhelm the health system unless by that point vaccination has reduced adult cases enough. It's actually hard to call but opening indoor hospitality shifts that into August and there we lose the race for sure /8
Otherwise September is hard - with a lot of adults vaccinated we have a huge wave of infection in school ages just at the point the return to school happens. And we probably have a lot of unvaccinated college age at just the level they start. It's terrible timing /9
I've no calculation of deaths here because as of now the methods I use and the data available makes that impossible. However the worst case NPHET model, and we are in a much worse position, has 1760 additional death so if they are right they would suggest 3,000 /10
I was going to add some wishful thinking here as to why this may not happen but TBH I can't come up with anything convincing enough. All I can say is the vaccines work so well that we are now talking of 3,000 deaths rather than 43,000+ on current government policy intentions

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More from @andrewflood

15 Jul
With almost 1000 cases a day it's clear the Cautious Reopening is now off the rails & in next tweet I have a new plot. But added today as red dots
994 cases, 186% last Thursday
80 hospital, 138% "
22 ICU, 129% "
/1
New plot using the NPHET scenarios to track what I'm calling the Precarious Exit. Cases added as bright green dot, you'll note we are already doing worse than the worst case NPHET presented yesterday. Next tweet I look at how much worse /2
We have had 4754 cases in week which is 140% last week- project forward at that rate to end September & we have 840k cases accumulate, 19k hospitalised at current rate of 2.3% cases
4294
6012
8416
11783
16496
23094
32332
45265
63370
88719
124206
173888
243444
/3
Read 9 tweets
15 Jul
HSE CEO Paul Reid says close to 1000 cases will be reported today, the north had reported 1083 cases (and hospital admissions up 154% on last week). That makes it quite likely we will have 2,000 new cases reported for the entire island within hours.
That 1000 is going to be putting us on the NPHET worst case scenario, indeed potentially much worse. If tomorrow & Saturday is similar there is no way the risk of reopening indoor hospitality should proceed Monday - it would guarantee a Lv4/5 lockdown by mid August
This week there have been 80 hospitalisations which is 2.3% of the 3518 cases in the week to the July 9th. The north is also seeing 2.4% hospitalisation. About 10% of hospitalisations end up in ICU. Continued cases rises at this rate will rapidly shut down other healthcare
Read 4 tweets
14 Jul
Cautious Reopening plot tells its own story of things going wrong as all the stats lurch in the wrong direction as Delta exceeds 80% of cases. As red dots
783 cases, 135% last Wednesday
73 hospital, 122% last Weds
20 ICU, 118% last Weds
/1
The 4294 cases this week are 130% previous week, at that rate there would be 400k cases by end of September with 8,000 admitted to hospital. That doesn't look very sustainable & would likely lead to a lockdown unless that rate reduces - we are close to central 2 scenario /2
That Central 2 Scenario is pretty grim, including 1150 additional deaths & its worrying thats the current trajectory before the high risk opening of indoor hospitality /3
Read 4 tweets
13 Jul
Cautious Reopening with added as red dots todays
589 cases, 148% last Tuesday
62 hospital, 115% last Tuesday
17 ICU, 106% last Tuesday
We crossed 4k cases in a week today, 4092 this week are 124% previous weeks, I'll come back that down thread /1 Image
What may be the key metric is the percentage of cases that become hospitalised - that has drifted downwards slightly to 1.9% however as cases are rising faster we will still see the numbers being hospitalised and then numbers in hospital climbing. /2 Image
At each week being 124% of previous & 1.9% hospitalised by Sept 30th we'd see 260k cases and 5,000 hospitalisations. In other words we appear to currently be heading for somewhere between the NPHET Central scenarios. But thats before the impact of opening indoor hospitality /3 Image
Read 5 tweets
1 Jul
Somewhat to my surprise this late in the pandemic I'm, still seeing 'cases may be rising but hospitalisations aren't' so I thought it would be useful to do a broad timeline of the delays between infection & the various stats warning us. They can run into weeks /1
1. Infections are invisible, we don't know they have happened, no test can pick them up until some days later. Delta has been observed to double in 4.5 days meaning by the time we have a clue 1000 infections are already 4000
2. Cases are when someone has felt ill or has been told they are a close contact, booked a test, attended the test, the swab has gone to a lab, the lab has got a result & that result is Quality assured. It varies with the speed of those steps but Cases are probably 9+ days
Read 12 tweets
29 Jun
In a day of unhappy news unfortunately the Cautious Reopening plot is also taking a turn for the worse - all 3 indicators have risen in comparison with last Tuesday. Added as red dots
351 cases, 119% last Tuesday
46 hospital, 118% last Tuesday
16 ICU, 123% last Tuesday /1 Image
Earlier today we heard Delta had reached being 55% of cases . This may be why what was working now isn't, the
2471 cases in last 7 days is 109% previous 7 but week before we had a 22% reduction. One positive - 44 hospital cases in the week is 1.9% of cases to J23, a .1% drop /2
I summarise the key points in the latest NPHET to CMO letter in this thread but the 1st line of that table compared to the rest gives an idea of just how much Delta has messed up what was previously a convincing reopening plan /3 Image
Read 4 tweets

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