Made it to Friday relatively unscathed.

But that's only because of big πŸ’° position, puts, bonds, and $TAIL position.

Phase transitions are turbulent πŸ›©οΈ

Let's dig in!
Asia closed ↔️ on the week and β†˜οΈ today

$NIKK 28003 -1.0%
$SSEC 3539 -0.7%
$TWII 17895 -0.8%
$HSI 28082 +0.4%
$KOSPI 3277 -0.3%
$IDX 60073 +0.4%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7348 +0.2%

India β†˜οΈ
$BSE 53062 -0.2%
Bumpy week for Europe, β†˜οΈ one day ↗️ the next

$DAX 15675 +0.3%
$FTSE 7041 +0.4%
$CAC 6493 unch
$AEX 739 -0.1%
$IBEX 8576 +0.6%
$MIB 24949 +0.3%
$SMI 12026 +0.4%
$MOEX 3806 +0.15%
Small caps on the verge of trend break, with πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ futures trading ↔️

$ES 4353 +0.05%
$NQ 14790 unch
$RTY 2193 +0.25%

$VIX 16.91 πŸ”»
GOLD pulling back from 1-month high with metals ↔️

$GOLD 1824 -0.3%
$SILVER 26.258 -0.5%
$COPPER 4.323 unch
$PLAT 1133 -0.4%
$PALL 2724 -0.2%
$ALI 2502 +0.4%
$SINX 28975 +0.45%

$GVZ 15.01 πŸ”Ί
πŸ›’οΈ and ⛽️ -4.0% to -5.0% from cycle highs and catching a bid this morning ↗️

$WTIC 73.77 +0.4%
$BRENT 73.77 +0.4%
$GASO 2.257 +0.3%
$NATGAS 3.601 -0.35%

$OVX 38.04 πŸ”»
Grains have repaired a lot of damage, trading ↗️

$WHEAT 681 +1.3%
$CORN 557 +0.4%
$SOYB 1399 +0.6%
$SUGAR 17.48 +0.9% ♉️
USD has been banging around 92-92.8 for the week, with an ♉️ bias.

$USD 92.57 -0.07%
$EUR 1.815 +0.03%
$GBP 1.386 +0.2%
$AUD .744 +0.2%
$USDJPY 110.11 +0.2%
$USDCHF .9195 +0.2%
$USDCAD 1.257 -0.2%
$USDRUB 74.122 -0.3%
Why anyone would buy this 🐻 trend escapes me

$BTC 31440 -3.15%
UST yields sank yesterday, but ↗️ this morning

10/2s to 109.8 BPS πŸ”» on the week
MOVE 56.98 πŸ”»

2Y .234
5Y .799
10Y 1.332
30Y 1.962

After sinking like πŸͺ¨ with $BNDX +0.4% on the week, global 10Ys are ↔️
I've been repositioning the portfolios over the past several weeks and in a decent position for #quad3.

Added to XLE and AMLP all week as my energy exposure was lighter than it should be.

Hope you avoided the 🐻 and the 🐫

Have a profitable πŸ’° and a great weekend!

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @tdarling1

18 Jul
Weekly Macro Review July 18, 2021

1/12

β†˜οΈβ†—οΈβ†˜οΈβ†—οΈ
During phase transitions, old trends break and new ones form

The market machine is β€œconfused.” How could it not be with inflation ↗️ bond yields β†˜οΈ and the USD and GOLD ↗️?

Job#1 during this chop is capital preservation
2/12

The USD 92.69 +0.62% is back to ♉️ trade (t) and trend (T)

Both the EUR 1.181 -0.59% and AUD -1.26% are 🐻 and hanging onto critical technical support.

Chart: $USD 92.69 +0.62% is +0.52% over (t) duration and +1.26% over (T) duration Chart: $USD 92.69 +0.62% is...
2A/12

Chart: $EURUSD 1.181 -0.59% is trading at critical support.

A weekly close < 1.170 could take this β†˜οΈ to ~ 1.12 over the next 3-4 months. Chart: $EURUSD 1.181 -0.59%...
Read 16 tweets
13 Jun
Global Macro Week in Review

1/12

This past week was NOT a #quad2 week

Bonds and proxies outperformed with LQD +1.2%, TLT +1.72%, XLRE +1.97% and XLU +1.12% vs. SPY +0.4%

Meanwhile, HE’s four horsemen languished with XLB, XLF and XLI all losing positive 1-month price momentum
2/12

Equity volatility β†˜οΈ continued to drain from the market

$VIX 15.65 -4.69%
$VXN 19.16 -9.71%
$RVX 22.26 -2.45%
$VXEEM 17.88 -7.07%

⚠️ Opex ahead on 6/16
A supportive vol regime and a big decline in yields led to outsized performance in $COMPQ and $RUT

$RUT +1.89%
$COMPQ +1.85%
$CAC +1.3%
$SPX +0.41%
$KOSPI +0.29%
$NIKK +0.02% 🐻
$DAX unch
$HSI -0.26%
$SSEC -0.6%

$CAC still leads +9.16% over 3 months
Read 14 tweets
11 Jun
Good day, Friday!

#CPI +5.0% (biggest ↗️ since 8/08 - not a vintage year, btw) and the UST 10Y drops to 1.44%.

Market is discounting what may be a peak in growth and inflation.

Let's dig into the morning's early data...
Asian equities closed the week mostly ↗️

$NIKK 28949 unch
$SSEC 3590 -0.6% πŸ”»
$TWII 17214 +0.3%
$HSI 28870 +0.5%
$KOSPI 3249 +0.8%
$IDX 6095 -0.2% πŸ”»

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7312 +0.1%

India ↗️
$BSE 52512 +0.4%
Europe trading ↗️

$DAX 15587 +0.1%
$FTSE 7125 +0.5%
$CAC 6575 +0.45%
$AEX 725 unch
$IBEX 9186 +0.55%
$MIB 25654 +0.05%
$SMI 11841 +0.25%
$MOEX 3841 +0.3%
Read 11 tweets
7 Mar
March 7 Week in Review

Aloha!

There are some important developments to note this week in currencies, rates, and sectors.

Let’s start where it matters most - currencies.
The $USD 91.99 +1.22% turned bullish trend this week.

The world reserve currency is now +1.43% over the past 3-mos (60 trading days) and +2.34% YTD. The $USD 91.99 +1.22% turned bullish trend this week.
Equally important, the $EUR -1.32% has turned bearish trend, down -1.52% over the past 3 months and -2.49% YTD.

EUR joins CHF and JPY, both of which are in steep declines having broken trend in early February. $EUR -1.32% has turned bearish trend
Read 17 tweets

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