Earlier this week, the DUP set out 7 tests for any new arrangements on the NI Protocol. But does any model work, especially if you throw in the UK & EU's red lines?

Huge thanks to @DPhinnemore @LisaClaireWhit1 for their help in making this work

PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic88
The key point is, perhaps obviously, to point out that there is no option that can both satisfy all the DUP's tests and be acceptable to the EU and London, even before we get to anyone else in Northern Ireland
Which suggests that as long as everyone's policy preferences remain as they are, there is not going to be a stable equilibrium and tensions are only going to continue
Something to consider as we await the UK govt's plans this week, which at best will restate previous aspirations, and at worst will further destabilise the situation

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More from @Usherwood

8 Jul
Only a limited number of ways this could go

1/
Most benignly, the govt offers to work fully within the NIP, with the EU to resolve issue, and leaves it at that

This is unlikely, esp. given that mention of a 'new balance'

2/
Option 2 is to say they'll stick with the current text, but work to build further extensions/grace periods/non-applications to smooth the path

Again, not very likely

3/
Read 11 tweets
23 Jun
Since I've written a lot about #Brexit (and for longer than 5 yrs), I thought I'd share some content that speaks to the bigger picture and that might still be of use now

tl;dr it's gone about as well as I thought/feared

1/
This, from Nov 17, tries to explain how Brexit is an exercise in apportioning costs

blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2017/…

2/
In July 17, I ran through some good practice on negotiating, which still all holds

blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2017/…

3/
Read 8 tweets
14 Jun
A quick Monday morning run-down of where the UK is on the Northern Ireland Protocol

tl;dr yes it creates problems, but those are ones of the UK's choosing

1/
This weekend's G7 was very much at the worse end of possible outcomes, with much digging into positions and a degree of opportunity cost to UK on the actual agenda of the meeting



2/
A lot of the annoyance seems to have come from Macron's remarks on NI being apart from the rest of UK. Johnson's response (above) is true, but misses a key part of the picture - he agreed to NI being apart from the rest of UK

3/
Read 12 tweets
9 Jun
Today sees the first meeting of the TCA's Partnership Council, as well as the WA's Jt Cte: worth noting their distinct remits, powers and the different dispute settlement mechanisms they have access to
And just so you have them, more info on those dispute settlement mechanisms

In both cases we're still right at the start of these, but they both contain significant scope for penalties for infringement of treaty obligations
And here's a couple of graphics about options on the Protocol

Tl;dr here is that it might be problematic, but it's a lot less problematic than the alternatives
Read 4 tweets
8 Jun
Coming back to this, a couple of thoughts about how to get what you want

1/
The general formula is that - ceteris paribus - if you're looking for the other party in an agreement to help you out, you're more likely to get that if you've demonstrated that you've tried to make the agt work

2/
So, in a non-random example, if you agreed a 6 month grace period on chilled meat products accessing the other party and you said you'd use that time to adjust, then if you didn't try to adjust then you're less likely to be cut any slack

3/
Read 7 tweets
8 Jun
So what might a less 'purist' approach look like?

Maybe letting UK say it wanted 6 mths to make the necessary changes to chilled meats perhaps? And then agreeing to that?

Something on those lines, I'd imagine
as @pholmes8 rightly notes, the extension was written by the UK as a unilateral statement, so can't even blame this on haggling over text

Read 5 tweets

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