Earlier this week, the DUP set out 7 tests for any new arrangements on the NI Protocol. But does any model work, especially if you throw in the UK & EU's red lines?
The key point is, perhaps obviously, to point out that there is no option that can both satisfy all the DUP's tests and be acceptable to the EU and London, even before we get to anyone else in Northern Ireland
Which suggests that as long as everyone's policy preferences remain as they are, there is not going to be a stable equilibrium and tensions are only going to continue
Something to consider as we await the UK govt's plans this week, which at best will restate previous aspirations, and at worst will further destabilise the situation
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Since I've written a lot about #Brexit (and for longer than 5 yrs), I thought I'd share some content that speaks to the bigger picture and that might still be of use now
tl;dr it's gone about as well as I thought/feared
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This, from Nov 17, tries to explain how Brexit is an exercise in apportioning costs
A quick Monday morning run-down of where the UK is on the Northern Ireland Protocol
tl;dr yes it creates problems, but those are ones of the UK's choosing
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This weekend's G7 was very much at the worse end of possible outcomes, with much digging into positions and a degree of opportunity cost to UK on the actual agenda of the meeting
A lot of the annoyance seems to have come from Macron's remarks on NI being apart from the rest of UK. Johnson's response (above) is true, but misses a key part of the picture - he agreed to NI being apart from the rest of UK
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Today sees the first meeting of the TCA's Partnership Council, as well as the WA's Jt Cte: worth noting their distinct remits, powers and the different dispute settlement mechanisms they have access to
And just so you have them, more info on those dispute settlement mechanisms
In both cases we're still right at the start of these, but they both contain significant scope for penalties for infringement of treaty obligations
And here's a couple of graphics about options on the Protocol
Tl;dr here is that it might be problematic, but it's a lot less problematic than the alternatives
The general formula is that - ceteris paribus - if you're looking for the other party in an agreement to help you out, you're more likely to get that if you've demonstrated that you've tried to make the agt work
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So, in a non-random example, if you agreed a 6 month grace period on chilled meat products accessing the other party and you said you'd use that time to adjust, then if you didn't try to adjust then you're less likely to be cut any slack
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