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Raoul Pal Profile picture
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19 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Just adding to this thread.... the rise in the dollar and fall in bond yields is all about a moderation in growth. I think it might lead to a growth scare in Q4.
Bond yields rise and fall with the business cycle. The business cycle has peaked and will ease off significantly and so bond yields will fall.
And the same is true of the dollar, it is a function of the business cycle (dollar inverted on this chart).
The question is how far growth will moderate. In China the PMI is below 50. My guess is the US/EU etc will see similar... and that will lead to more stimulus. Early days yet but that is my on-going working hypothesis.

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
28 Jun
The macro winds might be changing...

Macro is ruled by two assets - the US dollar and US treasuries. If they move together they are usually telling us something important. It is time to have them both on your radar screen... 1/
Using the Euro/$ as the proxy for the dollar...there is risk of a very large head and shoulder forming. The dollar tends to rally on economic weakness (and falling yields).
And 10 year rates look like they are going to test the uptrend. If my hunch that H2 is going to be weaker than expected is correct, this trend line will confirm. After all, bonds speak the economic truth.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
26 Jun
If you are interested in The Exponential Age, James Anderson of Scottish Mortgage is The Godfather of investing in the theme (in listed markets).

This short 15 mins interview is worth watching.

bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individu…
His fund is one of the best performing in history...truly exponential. He is a measured and very reasonable man...
The log scale of this London listed fund makes much more sense...
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Raoul Pal Profile picture
26 Jun
If you are as fascinated by community tokens as I am (I think it is the future of business models) then this interview with @hendry_hugh and @KevinChou with @AshBennington is fabulous.

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It is all part of my knowledge journey in community tokens that started with @RAC

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Then @pierskicks took it to a new stratosphere...the metaverse

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Raoul Pal Profile picture
25 Jun
Amazing interviews on the Real Vision Festival of Learning. Just watched good friends @SantiagoAuFund and @profplum99 who were so, so useful for many and as ever, great! @wolfejosh was the festival headliner with 2 incredible interviews; @nfergus who is always exceptional 1/
and a good friend of @RealVision too, along with the phenomenal @kahneman_daniel who was in my top 5 choice of guests ever for Real Vision (Finally got him!!). The round table between all three was the icing on the cake.
The depth and breadth of learning from this event, from the smartest minds in the world, fuck ups, processes and successes, is something magic.

Bravo!

And on top are amazing Real Visionaries like @TommyThornton @PeterLBrandt @markopapic @choffstein @DeeSmithTexas @JulianMI2
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
17 Jun
The dollar is always the KEY macro variable.

When it moves, everything moves. If the dollar rises sharply back to the middle of the range, it kills the inflation narrative for now.

The real guts of the inflation debate is more likely next year's story.
It is normal to see inflation fears immediately after recessions but they tend to ease sharply (or entirely reverse, as do bond yields).
And The Fed always cuts again (for 2 years) after the recession as stimulus and re-bound effects wear off...
Read 11 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
14 Jun
Let's see how the Fed plays out but PTJ's observation that if they stick with their unemployment narrative then that is wildly bullish tech (BTC and gold too). Many big tech charts are looking poised to break higher, along with $ARKK.

Also....
If they remain serious about full employment (which I think they are) then either yields rises and yield curve control kicks in, expanding the balance sheet and pushing up risk assets, after an initial drop... or...
the post reopening rebound slows, as does relation (as is normal after initial post-recession, and is my base base for 2021) and the Fed have a hair trigger to do more QE and gov has hair trigger to do more stim.
Read 5 tweets

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