On Friday, I had an “extra special” MiB guest – I interviewed Brain Deese, Director of the White House National Economic Council under President Joe Biden.
The EO reveals a major policy change: A complete of decades of lax antitrust enforcement, much greater scrutiny of M&A + tougher enforcement against anti-competitive industry consolidation.
M&A has increased significantly over the last 20 years -- with many sectors seeing industry consolidation increasing five-fold.
Deese: “We haven't seen the [promised] attendant benefit in terms of, lower prices, or more innovation in the economy.”
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30% of jobs in the U.S. require a license today, up from 5% in the 1950s.
Licensing requirements used to be focused on highly skilled and high-risk jobs, such as aircraft pilots and surgeons. Today, some states require licenses to be an interior decorator or a hairdresser.
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About 1 in 3 employers require a non-compete agreement, covering 60 million employees.
What began as an attempt to protect trade secrets leaving when senior execs changed firms has morphed into a way to suppress wages for rank and file workers.
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We discussed a variety of industries: Farming, Broadband, Pharma, Hospitals, Hearing Aids, wine & alcohol, banking, Real Estate + of course Big Tech.
All engage in some form of anti-competitive behavior that raises prices for consumers or lowers wages for employees
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Some mind-blowing examples: I had no idea landlords & condos got paid for exclusive cable deals eliminating broadband providers from competing in the same building.
Ending these illegal deals will allow you to choose among competing providers.
You know, like CAPITALISM.
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Another grievous offender, our friends at the National Association of Realtors (NAR)
NAR does a variety of things that have contributed to the USA have among the highest RRE commissions in the world. They have been put on notice they MUST change their practices.
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Example: Post-election loss, the Trump admin signed a sweetheart deal with the National Association of Realtors. It was a simultaneous "suit + proposed settlement"
It was a crony grift, and this admin just killed it.
The Realtors trade group are accused of being opaque + limiting access to homes on multiple listings services.
What the Council on Competitiveness wants to do is allow broad competition to drive down transaction costs on home sales; The NAR wants to keep 6% commissions.
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Other items:
- Restoring Net Neutrality
- Allowing Farmers to repair their own tractors
- Allowing Consumers to repair their phones/tablets
- Hearing aids sold w/o a prescription
- Eliminating regs on wine and alcohol bottles size/shape
Lots more
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There's much more in this hour-long interview - Deese has given this a lot of thought; he believes more competition + less industry concentration will accrue to the benefit of families, clawing back some of that $5000 per year in excess costs.
It is important to recognize the risks we create when working from a Narrative that:
1. We agree with (Confirmation Bias) 2. We disagree with (Cognitive dissonance) 3. We are unaware we lack the skillset to assess the accuracy of (Dunning Kruger)
Lots of happenings in Residential Real Estate. But be careful not to get caught up focusing on the wrong things -- no, it's not about inflation or NIMBY or PE rentals.
The big issues are technology, ultra-low rates, capital, and changing demographics.
A quick thread
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Let's go thru some of the things that matter far less, beginning with prices.
What matters most are not the price paid, but the monthly carrying costs. This is why low rates have a big impact, and tend to send prices higher.
Try to avoid chart/statistics crimes, like focusing on Year-over-year data from the pandemic lows. Ignorance? Bias? Fraud? I don't, but avoid this kind of garbage.
That is the track record the "Inflationistas" have amassed in predicting Inflation, Deflation, Disinflation - really ANY "Flation - so far in the 21st century.
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My advice: Pour yourself a tall glass of STFU + go find another expertise to pretend to have...
How can any economist have missed 3 decades of deflation?
Automation, global labor arbitrage, digitalization + outsourcing/offshoring all have worked to drive global prices lower.
Missing this and/or ignoring it explains that awful inflation-predicting track record