Time for the obligatory 'COVID proof' stock pitch. I am not giving up on re-opening names, of course, but Mobruk, $MBR.PW is looking pretty darn interesting here. Down ~13% (div adjusted) since I wrote this...

At 325 PLN I have it at 11x P/E, 9% div yield (100% payout) on THIS YEAR w no debt and growing EPS 25-30% next few yrs. Looking out '22E its a cool 11% yield...
They dispose of hazardous waste and are B2B (industry facing) so not really affected by lockdowns at all. That said COVID picture in Poland actually looks excellent:
And the vaccination picture is pretty advanced too:
there has been some noise re regulatory oversight (local govt trying to fine them) but dollars even in worst case don't really affect the thesis. As it stands I'm pretty confident this is a secular grower in an attractive niche (cleaning up Polish waste dumps) at a value px...
...whilst being neither a COVID winner nor loser, totally idiosyncratic. Something interesting during a massive sector rotation.

This is one of my largest positions, so obvi I am talking my book. DYODD. GLTA 🙏

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More from @puppyeh1

18 Jul
It's the weekend so I spent a little time trying to understand how post-vaccination COVID spread compares to a normal (and socially accepted) influence death/hospitalization burden.

Ofc I looked at the UK as best source of data + v high vaccination rates. H/T @DoxasticCap!!

This data is a bit old (looking at 1997-2009) but should be usable for our purposes. Seems like a mean flu season burden is ~28k hospitalizations and ~7.2k deaths: Image
Unpacking a little more, you can see this equates to ~50 hospitalizations per 100k people... Image
Read 11 tweets
16 Jul
Only in illiquid smallcap land could you find a stock like Michael Hill $MHJ.AX - 8 consecutive qtrs of SSS growth despite on/off lockdowns; a loyalty program growing 4x in a yr, and structural margin improvement under new mgmt - trading at 4x EBIT w massive net cash...🤔🤔
Work to be done to figure out how sustainable the improvement is but given it started well before COVID; has continued growing thru COVID; and online sales still only 6% of group (ie not massive rush to online), I think it has legs...
Consider also that group EBIT margins still likely only 11-12% vs NZ margins in the low-20s (smallest mkt so its not about scale). Plenty of room to improve margins as loyalty biz/repeat customers increases, lower costs thru rent renogs, etc...
Read 6 tweets
15 Jul
The amount of value you can find when you go down the mkt cap curve is fairly astonishing. Today's eg: The Works, $WRKS.LN, a UK-listed games retailer at <2.5x pre-COVID EV/EBITDA - w no debt.

As always the goal is to find situations where it's v difficult to lose $$

If you look up 'world's best businesses' you won't find $WRKS.LN looking back at you but that's not what this is about. Post restructuring in 08 the concept has successfully grown to 500 stores, generated ~220mm GBP revs pre-COVID, and put up ~13mm in EBITDA:
Today's mkt cap is ~34mm GBP so ~2.5x EV/EBITDA. Note this biz was putting up positive LfLs, successively, pre COVID and growing the concept (toys/games/gifts, kinda like $FIVE in the US).

Ie this is not some left-for-dead shrinking concept.
Read 16 tweets
14 Jul
It's been a little while so let's catch up on a few ideas. Am not going to cover every detail but will give thoughts on a few live situations I've tweeted about in the last few months (in no particular order).

Unless otherwise disclosed I'm long all these names, DYODD 👇👇

1) Cambria Auto, $CAMB.LN. See original 🧵 below.

Looks like Lavery is gonna steal the co for 80p but not yet confirmed. Am voting NO, but given capitulation of other holders + bullshit workaround he pulled on board it seems tough.

Assuming it gets done at 80p, this will simply be a sub-par outcome but - given entry in mid-high 70s - certainly not a disaster and a positive return. Still, will likely leave a bad taste in the mouth 🤮🤮
Read 21 tweets
14 Jul
Raper Capital Origin Story, pt 4. We have arrived at 2017.

I had moved back to buyside (in London) to get more experience so performance is simply static long book only (essentially forced to close short book and no new trading)...bit boring 😰

Still there are lessons to be had. 2017 was a v good yr for the mkt - SPX +19% - and a good yr to run naked long. I did pretty well - +21%, 2.2 Sharpe, mirrored the mkt but a touch better:
I was running v concentrated w chunky positions in $AER, $5184.T (Nichirin), $TFG.NA and $TOWR so there was a bit of vol mid year but ultimately returns were worthwhile (ball only dropped on $AER in 2018...)

There wasn't much rocket science in 2017...
Read 8 tweets
9 Jul
Back by popular demand 😁, here is the Raper Capital Origin Story, pt 3. The year - 2016.


For earlier editions see 👇👇
Entering 2016 I was pretty confident. Now in Singapore, I had put up v high, and uncorrelated, returns thru 2014/2015, and built my capital base substantially. But it was still subscale and one goal I had in 2016 was to 'bootstrap' my own fund launch...
Unfort it all went a bit pear-shaped in 2016. Here's how I did: +1.3% vs SPX +10%, so first year of underperformance. Sharpe collapsed to objectionable levels (0.2). I got hurt badly on shorts this year (3 out of 5 top losers were shorts):
Read 13 tweets

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