Weekly French Covid thread
The 4th wave of Covid, the Delta wave, is here - ahead of schedule. Cases have more than doubled - up 129% - in 7 days. Four fifths of Fr cases are now Delta. The government is alarmed. New restrictive rules re likely in the worst-hit areas. 1/12
The 4th wave of Covid, the Delta wave, is here - ahead of schedule. Cases have more than doubled - up 129% - in 7 days. Four fifths of Fr cases are now Delta. The government is alarmed. New restrictive rules re likely in the worst-hit areas. 1/12
The health defence council is meeting under President Macron’s chairmanship this morning. PM Jean Castex will make a statement later. The government feels that it can no longer wait for the effect of accelerated vaccinations/the widened health pass from 1 August. 2/12
Likely measures are a return to outdoor masks and 11pm resto/bar closures in worst-afflicted départements (clustered around the coast). This has already happened in Pyrénées Orientales (Perpignan), where the incidence rate has leaped to 372.7 (4X the national rate of 83.9) 3/12
Look at the map below from Le Parisien to see other likely targets, including Hérault (Montpellier) (incidence rate 202.7 cases per 100,000 people/7 days) and Alpes Maritimes (Nice) 162.6. Holiday destinations are worst-hit so far; inland areas less so. 4/12
The stats put into unflattering context 2 developments in the last week. There has been a minority revolt – including violence by a minority of the minority – against Macron’s decision to make vaxes compulsory for health workers and necessary for all who want to have fun. 5/12
The Delta explosion also casts further absurd light on the UK decision to impose quarantine on travellers returning from Fr. because of the Beta variant. Beta is present in Fr. (circa 5%) but stable and only dominant in La Réunion/Mayotte, parts of Fr. in the Indian Ocean. 6/12
Govt ministers have spoken of a coming Delta “tsunami”. Cases have quadrupled in a month and could reach 60,000 or more daily by early August, they fear. There were over 18,000 yesterday, bringing the average of the last 7 days to 9,888, compared to 4,324 last week.
7/12
7/12
So far acute cases and deaths remain very low. The reasonably high level of vaccination is helping, whatever the vax-sceptics says. Almost 70% of French adults and over 90% of over 70’s are now first-jabbed; 56.6% of adults are fully vaccinated; over 80% of the 70 pluses. 8/12
Deaths have fallen to 16.8 a day, after 25.1 last week. There are 875 patients in acute care, after 933 a week ago. The faint increases seen last week have not been maintained. Unfortunately, judging by what’s happening in the UK, these numbers WILL start to rise soon. 9/12
Macron’s decision to wield a big vax stick has been a success but has angered a coalition of the sincere and the cynical – from anti-vaxxers to freedom-lovers to restaurant owners to anti-everythings of far right and far left. Two vax centres have been attacked, one burned 10/12
But the results – imo – justify Macron’s decision. The slumping Fr. vax drive is booming again. There have been 6,000,000 vax RDV's. Health workers are being jabbed in droves. The 40m first shot target will fall by the end of the month. The new target is 43m by end Aug.
11/12
11/12
Hang in there.
12/12
12/12
Thread re-opens...
PM Castex warned, as expected, that decisions could be taken shortly to re-impose mask wearing and an 11pm resto-bar curfew in areas badly stricken by Delta. He also promised 5m new vax slots in next 15 days and set new target of 50m first jabs by end Aug.
PM Castex warned, as expected, that decisions could be taken shortly to re-impose mask wearing and an 11pm resto-bar curfew in areas badly stricken by Delta. He also promised 5m new vax slots in next 15 days and set new target of 50m first jabs by end Aug.
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