Your regular reminder that a 3% NHS pay rise (or a 1%, or whatever) is a lot more than 3%. Much more accurate to say ‘at least 3%, and in many cases far more’ thetimes.co.uk/article/welcom…
As @CPSThinkTank has shown, the 1% ‘pay freeze’ between 2012 and 2017 actually saw pay rise by 2.7% a year - though unevenly distributed.
In 2018, the ‘three-year deal worth 6.5%’ actually meant between 6.5% and 29%. Etc etc
Also salary data doesn't include other benefits, eg pensions
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.@julianHjessop is right. I've never read anything less likely to work smoothly, or less attuned to how businesses/the real world actually operates.
And as @jonathansimons points out, where are the civil servants to do this analysis and write these letters going to come from? Or does it get handed to Serco etc?
If anyone needs a primer on elderly social care, can recommend this @CPSThinkTank primer by @JethroFElsden & Alex Morton which sets out the main options and the pros and cons thereof. (1/?)
Our conclusion was that Dilnot-style ('cap and insurance') was the cheapest - which is why Whitehall likes it - but the most politically problematic and the least likely to incentivise the creation of additional supply.
By tweaking the 'cap' and 'floor' it is possible to make Dilnot more generous, and protect more of the family home. But that either starts to massively privilege richer families in the South-East with more valuable homes, or hugely increases the cost (or both)
Ahead of today's vote, it's worth recapping Tory voters' views on foreign aid spending. Namely: they hate it so very much. It is literally up there with 'abolish the monarchy' or 'make Corbyn PM'. See this from @FrankLuntz for @CPSThinkTank
Yes, Tory voters have a distorted view of how much is spent on aid - 29% of them name is as one of the four categories we spend most money on (this set of slides pretty alarming more generally). But that only makes them dislike it more.
The argument is sometimes made by aid's supporters that Tory voters might not like it, but it has a sort of penumbra of morality around it that appeals to Lib Dem-leaning voters in Chesham and places like that.
In a really crap summer, England gave us so much more than we could have asked for. Yes, the draw opened up for us. And yes, Southgate is still not great at game management/talent maximisation. But...
...for the first time in decades, England were a proper team. Cohesion. Discipline. Tactical flexibility. Round pegs, round holes. And they are mostly young players, and brilliant players, and they will grow.
This, the World Cup and the last few Champions Leagues, shows that it's an absolutely brilliant time to be an England fan, or English fan. Southgate and his team deserve enormous credit for that.
We've just published a huge set of polling from @FrankLuntz on the new values and language of British politics. You can find the full thing here, but I thought I'd summarise the most arresting findings. (Warning: long, but worthwhile) cps.org.uk/media/press-re…
First things first: the public is really pissed off! Solid majority for 'fuck 'em all' to both business and political leaders
Likewise, when we asked them to pick the words that represented their feelings towards same, they were overwhelmingly negative
Let me explain. The essay question was to explain what we actually know about the Tory vote, based on the very different results in Batley, Chesham and Hartlepool. Was it all about housing? Hancock? Lockdown? North vs south?
Luckily, @CPSThinkTank is about to publish a massive (and absolutely fascinating) survey by @FrankLuntz on the new language and values of politics and economics. Mostly still under wraps, but one thing I can reveal...