Thread by @lxeagle17

Okay, a more detailed thread of thoughts on "is it possible to out-organize voter suppression"...the answer is that "it depends" on a lot of things, not least of which is "what do you mean by voter suppression?".

Does voter suppression include gerrymandering? You can argue for one way or another, but a goal in voter suppression is to explicitly and intentionally deny a group of people adequate representation, and gerrymandering does that pretty well.

Can you out-organize maps that give the GOP a built-in R+10 advantage during a neutral year? No. End of story. If I remember the literature correctly, organizing probably makes, at best, a difference of one or two points -- maybe less. Which is important! But not enough.

Can you out-organize half-baked measures like the Georgia GOP's election bill, which attack voting measures that don't necessarily give them a massive partisan advantage? Yes, because I'm not convinced they actually help the GOP much anyways.

Regardless, in the absence of renewed federal legislation, there are ways in which the GOP can write bills that surgically target minorities to make it extraordinarily difficult for them to vote. Just because the Georgia bill didn't do it well doesn't mean they can't do it at all

If some of you remember my work on midterm electorates with state legislative results, note how minority turnout fluctuates in midterms (something already noted by many analysts). GOP has a definite advantage to be gained from dampening minority turnout.

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1408842485225295873?s=20

The exact % of the minority share will differ and I'm more inclined to think my 2014 minority #'s are just a touch low, but remember what's shown: a ~3% dip in the minority share of the electorate would negate the advantage Dems have among midterm coalitions with educated whites.

I don't see the laws the GOP have passed recently as accomplishing anything near that goal -- they're not nearly targeted and efficient enough to do that. But that doesn't mean they can't do it and doesn't mean they won't try. To guard against it, pass voting rights legislation