If China bails out the US by proving PPE bc we don’t make enough masks, ventilators and other protective equipment ourselves, who has the upper hand in that scenario?
If China bails out Bangladesh bc they borrowed too much money and are now in Default, who has the upper hand in that scenario?
If Russia bails out a freezing cold Europe by providing natural gas that Europe can’t make on its own, who has the upper hand in that scenario?
If ECB bails out Greece and imposes austerity bc the Greek banking system is insolvent, who has the upper hand in that scenario?
If a consortium of Wall Street Banks get together to bail out Long Term Capital Management, who has the upper hand in that scenario?
If Abu Dhabi bails out Dubai after a spectacular Real Estate mania goes south, who has the upper hand in that scenario?
If Russia provides Surface to Air missiles to Turkey so Erdogan can use them as leverage against the US and EU, who has the upper hand in that scenario?
If the US bails out the entire Eurodollar system because the Rest of the World borrower too much and can’t make dollars, who has the upper hand in that scenario?
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For anyone who is interested...or anyone who just thinks I don't understand, am going to get rekt, need to do research or want to have fun staying poor...here is the white paper I wrote on #Bitcoin a few years ago.
1. The most marketable commodity (the most marketable bc have faith based on its history that it will retain its value)
2. That which the Gov demands in tribute (you have faith if don’t pay your taxes in it the gov will jail you)
1/
One can argue that #2 above...actually leads to Govs fiat money becoming #1 above.
Regardless, all money is ultimately faith based. At their core, they are confidence games.
Once the confidence is gone, regardless of the reason, so is the value of the money/currency.
2/
In this way, money/currency, is very much like a religion.
The more that believe, the stronger it is.
The stronger it is, the longer it lasts.
The longer it lasts, the harder it is to unseat/replace.
It’s like the network effect.
Hi everyone.
Based on recent comments/twitter posts/interviews...my email, vm, dm & twitter stream have been inundated with questions about, & challenges to, my assertions regarding QE being "deflationary" rather than "inflationary"
1/
Many extremely smart & successful people (many of whom I like & respect) disagree with me.
Vehemently.
As such, I have been asked for "Proof" or my "Source" to back up my assertions.
The "Smoking Gun" per se...
I'll attempt to answer this as clearly as possible below
2/
Some clarification:
The assertions aren't to say QE is "never" inflationary.
Or "can't" be inflationary.
The assertion is that it's "not currently" inflationary.
It needs cooperation from commercial banks in form of credit extension (which isn't currently happening).
Ok...anyone want to hear a story that nothing to do with dollars, gold or bank reserves?
No...?
Well too bad...
Because this week is the 30th anniversary of one of the top 5 moments of my life.
And I'm feeling old.
And sentimental.
So...
I grew up in a small town of 1,000 people on the edge of the sandhills in western Nebraska. Many of my friends came from families that were farmers or ranchers. And everybody loved football.
I did too. As a little kid I wanted to play quarterback for @HuskerFBNation (like Turner Gill) and then for the @steelers (like Terry Bradshaw).
Every day at recess we played football.
And every play was a Hail Mary pass...
Hi All. With recent market action in equities and dollar, I have had several questions regarding...messages in support of...and challenges to (shocking, I know)...my outlook.
In order to try and provide some clarity...this thread will need to suffice for now.
Long story short, the fall in Q1 & subsequent rally we've seen in last 3 months in equities is NOT due to the core part of my thesis. It IS part of "moments of great terror & disbelief along the way" part of thesis...but not how I envision equities moving to all time highs. 2/
Right now seeing reflation of GLOBAL equities & risk assets due to CB support & easing of $ liquidity.
The core of Milkshake Theory relates to US equities rising while ROW remains under pressure due to $ liquidity falling. So while this isn't surprising, it also isn't IT. 3/
Like many others, I watched the interview with @RaoulGMI and @hendry_hugh with great interest.
If you work in macro and don’t find a convo between these two interesting you should probably find a different line of work 😅
1/
One of the parts I found most interesting was Hugh bringing up Princes of the Yen.
It’s a great book by @scientificecon and summarized well in this video.
2/
The reason I think this is of great importance is the implications of merger of Fed and Treasury and introduction/rollout of MMT/fiscal spending in the months/years ahead