Here's my column today. Annoyingly, I made a mistake in it. It's worth explaining why, because it shows how messed up policy on self-isolation really is. thetimes.co.uk/article/all-th…
For the last few days, I and others have been *less than polite* about the exemption procedure, which sees firms having to send individual staff names in to govt, and the justification for exempting them, then wait for three different govt depts to discuss and send a letter back.
As we've pointed out, this seems a cumbersome, bureaucratic, economy-destroying, Whitehall-knows-best approach.
You can tell this scheme (which operates until Aug 16) is a smoothly implemented cross-government initiative from the fact that *all* the departments you have to email about this have completely different addresses to send it to.
In my column, I said that this applied only to those who weren't in the special exempt sectors. But as @JohnAshmore points out in his excellent @CapX briefing today, that's wrong. capx.co/weekly-briefin…
It turns out that this ludicrously impractical scheme - 'name your self-isolating staff and we'll say yes or no' - is in fact the special fast-track scheme for those in vital jobs in vital sectors.
And as the guidance says, they really do mean vital. Like, the guy who stops the nuclear power plant from melting down vital. gov.uk/guidance/nhs-t…
For certain very very limited sectors (food and now bits of transport), there is daily tracing instead. But otherwise, this is the hoop you have to jump through.
And if you think your business is strategically vital but it's not on the list? Just 'contact the government'. No actual instructions (though you'd assume you'd try the emails for those who do qualify).
Anyway, after way too many screenshots, the interesting bit. In my column, I said those in strategically vital sectors would have an actually workable way to mitigate the pandemic impacts because that's what I was told. But what they meant by that was that daily tracing pilot.
In other words, those in the listed sectors are still overwhelmingly stuck with the 'send in the names' system. And those outside those sectors are pretty much out of luck.
(The bulk of my column is about something completely different - namely what we can tell about the government from its recent blizzard of activity - and you should definitely check it out thetimes.co.uk/article/all-th…)
(You should also sign up to @JohnAshmore's @CapX briefing at capx.co/subscribe, because it's a great product.)

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More from @rcolvile

24 Jul
There's a huge focus in the US now on "breakthrough infections" - it's not a phrase I've seen much in the UK but it does a lot to explain what's happening here, and one we may start to become much more familiar with. (1/?)
Put simply, a "breakthrough" infection is one which breaks through the resistance to infection conferred by vaccination. It's what happened to @sajidjavid - double-jabbed, but still got the 'rona.
Remember: the original aim was for vaccines to reduce/eliminate the risk of death/serious illness. The fact that they ended up making the vaccinated less infectious was a very welcome bonus.
Read 11 tweets
22 Jul
Oh God. This is pretty much a planned economy.
.@julianHjessop is right. I've never read anything less likely to work smoothly, or less attuned to how businesses/the real world actually operates.
And as @jonathansimons points out, where are the civil servants to do this analysis and write these letters going to come from? Or does it get handed to Serco etc?
Read 5 tweets
22 Jul
Your regular reminder that a 3% NHS pay rise (or a 1%, or whatever) is a lot more than 3%. Much more accurate to say ‘at least 3%, and in many cases far more’ thetimes.co.uk/article/welcom…
As @CPSThinkTank has shown, the 1% ‘pay freeze’ between 2012 and 2017 actually saw pay rise by 2.7% a year - though unevenly distributed.
In 2018, the ‘three-year deal worth 6.5%’ actually meant between 6.5% and 29%. Etc etc
Read 4 tweets
16 Jul
If anyone needs a primer on elderly social care, can recommend this @CPSThinkTank primer by @JethroFElsden & Alex Morton which sets out the main options and the pros and cons thereof. (1/?)
Our conclusion was that Dilnot-style ('cap and insurance') was the cheapest - which is why Whitehall likes it - but the most politically problematic and the least likely to incentivise the creation of additional supply. Image
By tweaking the 'cap' and 'floor' it is possible to make Dilnot more generous, and protect more of the family home. But that either starts to massively privilege richer families in the South-East with more valuable homes, or hugely increases the cost (or both) Image
Read 8 tweets
13 Jul
Ahead of today's vote, it's worth recapping Tory voters' views on foreign aid spending. Namely: they hate it so very much. It is literally up there with 'abolish the monarchy' or 'make Corbyn PM'. See this from @FrankLuntz for @CPSThinkTank
Yes, Tory voters have a distorted view of how much is spent on aid - 29% of them name is as one of the four categories we spend most money on (this set of slides pretty alarming more generally). But that only makes them dislike it more.
The argument is sometimes made by aid's supporters that Tory voters might not like it, but it has a sort of penumbra of morality around it that appeals to Lib Dem-leaning voters in Chesham and places like that.
Read 8 tweets
12 Jul
In a really crap summer, England gave us so much more than we could have asked for. Yes, the draw opened up for us. And yes, Southgate is still not great at game management/talent maximisation. But...
...for the first time in decades, England were a proper team. Cohesion. Discipline. Tactical flexibility. Round pegs, round holes. And they are mostly young players, and brilliant players, and they will grow.
This, the World Cup and the last few Champions Leagues, shows that it's an absolutely brilliant time to be an England fan, or English fan. Southgate and his team deserve enormous credit for that.
Read 6 tweets

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