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Raoul Pal Profile picture
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26 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Just an update of the favorite crypto charts...

Here is the log chart parallel of BTC now vs 2013... still fits decently well. 1/
2/ And here is the non-log version... pretty much perfect from a contextualization standpoint.
And here is ETH now vs BTC in 2017... also pretty decent.
Regardless of the drama on Twitter - tEtHEr!, ChINa! EsG!, SHItCOin scAM! elOn! - everything is normal in crypto world and just moving along Metcalfe's Law adoption curve...

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
24 Jul
Friday Night Thoughts - Thread on inflation and other stuff:

The cure for higher prices is higher prices, but it's also a three card trick...

Prices of goods disrupted by supply issues have exploded...(I used CPI Index, not CPI YoY as its distorted).
BUT, that has lead to a collapse in consumer confidence due to these prices...
What is going to happen in housing is clear - the homebuilders need to stop building or they will have an inventory problem...
Read 24 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
21 Jul
I know crypto chart takes are 2 a penny these days so mine are equally worthless, but... we all know that log charts are the right way to look at these...1/
Bitcoin seems to have negated the Head and Shoulders pattern, on-chain data suggest huge accumulation and better market dynamics, Metclafes Law valuations are increasing, and time and price have now met the log trend...2/
ETH has also reached the log trend in time and price and looks like it s forming a wedge.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
19 Jul
Just adding to this thread.... the rise in the dollar and fall in bond yields is all about a moderation in growth. I think it might lead to a growth scare in Q4.
Bond yields rise and fall with the business cycle. The business cycle has peaked and will ease off significantly and so bond yields will fall.
And the same is true of the dollar, it is a function of the business cycle (dollar inverted on this chart).
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
28 Jun
The macro winds might be changing...

Macro is ruled by two assets - the US dollar and US treasuries. If they move together they are usually telling us something important. It is time to have them both on your radar screen... 1/
Using the Euro/$ as the proxy for the dollar...there is risk of a very large head and shoulder forming. The dollar tends to rally on economic weakness (and falling yields).
And 10 year rates look like they are going to test the uptrend. If my hunch that H2 is going to be weaker than expected is correct, this trend line will confirm. After all, bonds speak the economic truth.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
26 Jun
If you are interested in The Exponential Age, James Anderson of Scottish Mortgage is The Godfather of investing in the theme (in listed markets).

This short 15 mins interview is worth watching.

bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individu…
His fund is one of the best performing in history...truly exponential. He is a measured and very reasonable man...
The log scale of this London listed fund makes much more sense...
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
26 Jun
If you are as fascinated by community tokens as I am (I think it is the future of business models) then this interview with @hendry_hugh and @KevinChou with @AshBennington is fabulous.

realvision.com/shows/the-inte…
It is all part of my knowledge journey in community tokens that started with @RAC

realvision.com/shows/the-inte…
Then @pierskicks took it to a new stratosphere...the metaverse

realvision.com/shows/the-inte…
Read 11 tweets

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