Thread by @WajSKhan

THREAD: Is China heading towards CT/COIN in Afghanistan?

Early July, FM Wang Yi [before attack on Chinese engineers in Pak] said Beijing wants to:
"effectively contain spillover of Afghanistan's security risks, and ensure overall stability in the region."
fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_6…

Late July, post Dasu attack, Beijing started hyphenating Afghanistan with Pak attack. Asked "all parties concerned in Afghanistan to fully observe the ceasefire" but also vowed to "severely punish the perpetrators [of the attack on Chinese engineers]."

fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_6…

Over the weekend, promoting itself as lead proponent of peace, Beijing indicated that it has successfully signed on Pakistan as a helper in Afghan peace process:

"Pakistan is willing to work closely with China to push forward Afghanistan's peace"

fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_6…

Then came the anti-U.S. stance in new position:
"Without eliminating terrorism or bringing peace to Afghanistan, the US suddenly withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, which has resulted in a new security black hole. Obviously, this act is irresponsible."

fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_6…

Critical:

"We will work together to combat terrorism...push all major forces in Afghanistan to draw a clear line against terrorism, firmly combat the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and other terrorist forces, and resolutely stop Afghanistan from becoming a hotbed of terrorism."

Alongside, a clear admonition of the Dasu attack, with more. Much more:

fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_6…

China's media reiterated:

"As Afghan-Taliban peace talks failed to reach breakthrough and security threats remain high, [China & Pak] agreed to take joint actions to tackle the spillover effect from the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan.

globaltimes.cn/page/202107/12…

And again:

"China and Pakistan will jointly combat terrorism, push all major forces in Afghanistan to draw a clear line with terrorism, resolutely crack down on terrorist forces..."

More importantly, Global Times added some nuance to the Dasu attack, pinning it on TTP+ETIM:

"Although no organization has claimed responsibility yet, Chinese experts believed that terrorist groups such as Pakistani Taliban or the ETIM were behind the attack."

More about China's take on Dasu: "Due to a changing environment in Afghanistan, the ETIM terrorists may have fled to Pakistan where they collaborated with the Pakistani Taliban to launch an attack on China, some experts have said."

Interestingly, GT had a veiled warning for Pakistan: that if it allows this wave of anti-Chinese terror to continue, then...

"They also warned that if the situation in Afghanistan further deteriorates, Pakistan as well as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will be in danger."

Even more interestingly, Chinese media was citing experts who are against Washington supporting the Kabul regime:

Context: The Afghan Taliban have said that they see Beijing a friend, and (when asked about the Uighur issue) said the don't want to interfere in China's internal affairs:

ndtv.com/world-news/tal…

More context: China's been in direct contact with the Taliban for a while, and has even had them over in Beijing.

reuters.com/article/us-afg…

Thus, as the spiralling violence in Afghanistan "spills over" into Pak where it could hurt China too (which it has, with Dasu), the Chinese have made it clear that they will a) push all sides for peace but b) also push back to combat terror.

But how far will Beijing go?

Clearly, after the Dasu attack, China's language regarding Afghanistan seems to be getting more muscular.

But, like always, even its veiled threat of conducting CT business ["combat" / boots on the ground] remains hyphenated in a partnership with its "Iron Brother" Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the language regarding Pakistan remains friendly, but Chinese media is beginning to show that Beijing can and will exercise leverage over Pakistan, like shutting down CPEC, if the Pakistanis don't get their house, and the house next door, in order.

Also, just FYI, Kashmir is missing from the crucial
Five Point Consensus of the Strat Dialogue:

fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_6…

BUT, Kashmir is mentioned in the joint press release, almost as a redundancy: Pakistan briefs China on "deteriorating" situation in "Jammu and Kashmir" ["occupied" is not used] and Beijing says Kashmir is "a dispute left over from history."

fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_6…

However, in a tip of the hat to Pakistan, but without naming India, China says it "opposes any unilateral actions that complicate the situation" in Kashmir in context of not resolving it peacefully / through the UN Charter.