Thread by @WajSKhan

Pakistan’s leadership is building up a serious case against India, but so far, most of its been for domestic audiences.

Internationally, @ImranKhanPTI hasn’t been able to really sell his cause for #Kashmir. The UNSC consultation today is a test case of Pak’s diplomatic muscle.

Failure in New York by @MOFAPakistan will further build up frustration at home - especially in the rank & file of the military - and increasingly validate the hawks to position Pakistan to launch an asymmetric war, if not conventional operations against India.

The last time Pakistanis needed such existential validation was after their fall in 1971.

Consequently, nukes & Islamization were experimented with by civ & military governments alike. A Constitution was birthed & prolifically amended to support national security & identity.

The loss of EastPakistan was traumatic. However, Islamabad/Pindi’s intolerance & disdain for Dhaka were as much to blame for ‘71 as Delhi’s interventionism.

But the grudge of ‘71 - with the Two Nation Theory disproven after Bangladesh’s creation - would be harboured permanently.

Thus, Khalistan. Thus, the 1988 insurgency. Thus, Kargil. The ‘death by a thousand cuts’ theory which had worked in practice against the Soviets would/could work for Kashmir, said the strategic engineers. War was bad. Sub-conventional war was good. Proxies were even better.

Initially, India suffered. But post 9/11, it took a leaf from Israel’s anti-Intifada playbook & compelled global audiences to equate any & all campaigns for self-determination w/ terrorism. With its economic muscle & diplomacy, it also forced Musharaf to invoke the ‘04 ceasefire

The ‘04 ceasefire didn’t pay off for Pak’s hawks. The Composite Dialogue crashed. The Indians didn’t reciprocate, even with low-hanging fruit like Siachen. More importantly, India ended up hardening the LoC, fencing off most of the disputed territory into an Israel-style border.

Under pressure by its powerful client, the US, Pak tolerated the hardening of the LoC while it partially dismantled jihadi infrastructure & curbed proxy ops. But it never really moved comprehensively to shut down the jihad shop. That it couldn’t - wouldn’t - showed up in Mumbai.

Because of the international nature of the Mumbai attacks (and its victims), Pakistan’s alleged support for terror became an international concern for all & sundry. Over a decade, ‘terror safehaven’ - plus a ‘Pak double deals in Afghanistan’ narrative - would be stapled together.

Thus, a pattern woul develope: arresting / releasing Hafiz Saeed & Co would become a part of Pak’s strategy to cope.

But scrapping 370 in #Kashmir, the original sin of Partition, in a nuclearized / proxy-worn / Hindutva-mad Subcontinent, has hit a very raw national nerve in Pak

That it is struggling economically, than it’s been let down yet again by ‘brotherly nations’, that’s its probably not prepared for the UNSC today, are serious concerns.

But even more serious: the hawks could be back in control.

And that means war.

Most probably, proxy war.