Share this page!

Dr Able Lawrence🦉MD DM Profile picture
Twitter logo
27 Jul, 4 tweets, 3 min read
What has been the true extant of the COVID19 pandemic in United states after accounting for underdiagnosis and misreporting? The pandemic still has a long way to run its course. #COVID19
pnas.org/content/118/31…
Has United States reached sufficient levels of Immunity to prevent another wave. While 80% of the popultion may have some immunity, this is subject to R0
R0 started at 6, and the virus has become 2.5 times more infective. Probably higher levels needed.
pnas.org/content/118/31…
Course of the epidmic in terms of Incidence, reproductive rate R(t) and cumulative cases in Ohio and Indiana
Natural infections have only reached 20-25% and the gap needs to be filled by vaccination.
Scientists model the true extant of the Covid19 pandemic accounting for the extant of testing and under reporting.
medicalxpress.com/news/2021-07-s…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Dr Able Lawrence🦉MD DM

Dr Able Lawrence🦉MD DM Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @abledoc

Dr Able Lawrence🦉MD DM Profile picture
28 Jul
Shielding Strategy where high risk individuals in UK were told to "shield" themselves from #COVID19 a huge failure in Scotland as the shielded subjects contracted severe covid at higher rates. @dgurdasani1 @PaulNuki @pash22 #shielding #SARSCovid2
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11… Image
High Risk Individuals eligible for shielding had higher exposure to hospitals.
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11… Image
Recent exposure to hospitals were associated with increased risk of Covid19 in high risk individuals eligible for shielding in Scotland.
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11… ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Dr Able Lawrence🦉MD DM Profile picture
6 May
"Social Distancing" is a term coined by (math inclined) epidemic modellers and misunderstood by public & even by most public health "experts"
So what does it mean. 1/n
Lets start with the factors affecting R0 (Basic Reproductive Rate) that critically determines an outbreak...
R0 (Basic Reproductive Rate)
= (Avge number of people one meets in a day) * (Probability of Transmission) * (Number of Infective days)
Thus R0 is not a fixed number but influenced & modified by behaviour.
Meeting & interacting with fewer people reduces R0 (Social Distancing) 2/n
Keeping 2m/6 feet distance distance reduces droplet transmission (Probability of Transmission, 2nd term), physical distancing is confused as Social distancing
Masks, Vaccination etc all reduce the second factor in R0
@s_harley1 @PriyankaPulla @JoyAnnReid
3/n
Read 9 tweets
Dr Able Lawrence🦉MD DM Profile picture
24 Jan
Bats are diverse. There exists 1423 known species, with considerable sequence variation in viral receptors (eg DPP4 and ACE2) increasing the likelihood that mere exists a coronavirus variant that spilling into humans.
DPP4 is the receptor for MERS while ACE2 is the receptor for SARS. The variation in these receptors among bats greater than that between humans and other species of mammals. We still don't know the identity of bat species from which COVID19 came.
Bats have exceptionally long lifespans for their size. Bat Immune system has adaptations that allow them to harbour viruses without getting ill. They have constitutive activation of interferon pathway while other pathogenic pathways are reduced.
Read 5 tweets
Dr Able Lawrence🦉MD DM Profile picture
22 Jan
Here is a thread on what people with heart disease should consider before taking vaccine 1/n
People with heart disease are at increased risk from COVID19 not only due to heart disease but also from diabetes & hypertension. Thus benefits of vaccination are greater. Now the nuance
Reports of sudden deaths following vaccination have received widespread coverage, mostly in the old (Norway) as well as young (Karnataka, India & Portugal) attributed to Cardiac events. This has to be seen against millions vaccinated. Risk of COVID19 death above 70 is 14% 2/n
One can say a particular mode of death is attributable (partially or fully) to vaccination if it is raised above the baseline risk. Even still benefits of vaccine outweighs risk.
Let's discuss whether vaccine can plausibly trigger cardiac events in high risk individuals 3/n
Read 12 tweets
Dr Able Lawrence🦉MD DM Profile picture
5 Jan
BirdFlu outbreak in India #BirdFlu #H5N8 #H5N1 #BirdFlu2020 #HPAI #AvianFlu
Are we dealing with one outbreak or two separate outbreaks of H5N8 and H5N1 strains?
This is a thread on the BirdFlu Outbreak, analysing what we know so far and potential risk 1/n
timesnownews.com/india/article/…
Here is an excellent compilation of BirdDeath events across India. @birdcountindia affiliated with eBird.org is a science project promoting cataloging BirdRecords in India. You would find lists of events with links here 2/n #BirdFlu
birdcount.in/dead-or-dying-…
Mass deaths of Birds have been reported from Kerala since mid December including in Duck Farms.
The causative agent has been confirmed as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N8 #HPAIH5N8
Despite name it has very low pathogenicity in humans. 3/n
thehindu.com/news/national/…
Read 14 tweets
Dr Able Lawrence🦉MD DM Profile picture
29 Nov 20
Reliance Jio Customer Torture Service is the worst customer outreach program in existence.
My big mistake porting my mobile number from BSNL (another Jio success story in turning a great public facility to dust) to Reliance Jio network. @reliancejio @reliancegroup #Jio 1/n
I got an SMS on a Saturday afternoon before an extended weekend informing me that there was small unbilled amount with my previous service provider BSNL & hence Jio is disconnecting my services. Immediately my phone lost signal & network. Not even SMS or OTP possible 2/n Image
Although my credit card and debit card are blocked due to the OTP block, I managed to pay dues to BSNL.
When you follow the link in the SMS to update payment details, it asks you for an OTP (which of course you can't get because SMS is blocked
You need OTP to activate OTP! 3/n Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @abledoc has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @abledoc!

Read all threads by @abledoc

:(