People want a correction in us indices so badly, that they seem certain that China ==> USA contagion is a certainty.
Which probably means contagion is not in cards.
But corrective action would be unsurprising.
Which probably means contagion is not in cards.
But corrective action would be unsurprising.
“I want a correction therefore contagion is inevitable”
Not how it works, friends…
Not how it works, friends…
On China, key questions 4 me:
- are non Chinese cos w/ significant ops in China as vulnerable to regs as Chinese cos have been so far?
- at what point do policymakers consider that recent domestic regulatory agenda may harm other priorities, e.g. financial market development?
- are non Chinese cos w/ significant ops in China as vulnerable to regs as Chinese cos have been so far?
- at what point do policymakers consider that recent domestic regulatory agenda may harm other priorities, e.g. financial market development?
- are recent regs diminishing china’s long term competitiveness? Let’s suppose noblest of intentions - to promote competition in oligopolistic industries. to enhance labor rights. To reduce edu costs + improve quality of life for students/families so that ppl have more babies. if
- if i were in the politburo , I would be discussing whether the way they’re going about things helps or actually hurts achieve these and other objectives .
Because markets are voting very clearly.
Because markets are voting very clearly.
My cursory observation: I see minimal risk of direct contagion to USA. This seems more China shooting itself in the foot.
I just wonder if it’s ONLY shooting itself in the foot - which can be reversed - or if this is suicide.
Also, policy errors create opportunities for USA:
I just wonder if it’s ONLY shooting itself in the foot - which can be reversed - or if this is suicide.
Also, policy errors create opportunities for USA:
I am willing to bet a lot of $$$ there are more Chinese in China and SE Asia today than 6 months ago that would want to immigrate to the USA. And for all the right reasons.
So make it easy for them, #immigrationreform
So make it easy for them, #immigrationreform
If I were USA policymakers rather than loling at China shooting itself in the foot, learn from them: promote competition in oligopolistic industries. enhance labor rights. reduce edu costs + improve quality of life for students/families so that ppl have more babies.
But wisely.
But wisely.
My last question/observation - if/when Chinese equities bounce, it may be telling which stocks/sectors recover more/less, which don’t, etc.
https://twitter.com/GumdropCap/status/1420000758578221070
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