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LST Profile picture
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28 Jul, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Are any of the speakers, @marketplunger1 , qualified to opine, other than @ruima ?

Opinions are like a55holes, everyone has one … 🙄
Blah blah blah GDP blah blah

STFU
my view is based on the charts”

k #ValueAdd
@marketplunger1 technical difficulties I think (thx for trying) this is why I stopped twitter spaces
I haven’t done this in a month. I now remember: if you have headphones and are a listener and want to become a speaker on a Twitter talk, you might encounter problems. I’ve seen this problem few months ago and I see it now.

@TwitterSpaces , please fix this

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More from @LongShortTrader

LST Profile picture
29 Jul
The "metaverse" is something we've been thinking looking into in recent months.

But I haven't tweeted about it at all until now.

Respectfully, I think there is something substantive to the "metaverse", and that it's more than merely "rebranding the internet to sell things"
Is there hype/fluff with respect to "metaverse"? No question... just as there is when there is something new and growing.

However, here's what we currently believe "metaverse" is truly about:

it's the stepping stone to a VR based world.
VR is where capital has historically gone to burn. There's a lot of "sunk cost" / investor losses in VR land.

The world, outside niche (albeit growing) areas, is not ready for VR.

Metaverse is an intermediary step.

There are some likely catalysts in the next 12-16 months.
Read 6 tweets
LST Profile picture
27 Jul
People want a correction in us indices so badly, that they seem certain that China ==> USA contagion is a certainty.

Which probably means contagion is not in cards.

But corrective action would be unsurprising.
“I want a correction therefore contagion is inevitable”

Not how it works, friends…
On China, key questions 4 me:

- are non Chinese cos w/ significant ops in China as vulnerable to regs as Chinese cos have been so far?

- at what point do policymakers consider that recent domestic regulatory agenda may harm other priorities, e.g. financial market development?
Read 9 tweets
LST Profile picture
2 Apr
“For a while, Hwang hedged the portfolio by shorting individual stocks. Some of those short positions, like Under Armour, performed exceptionally well. But others, particularly Tesla, did not.”

Archegos was $TSLAQ

forbes.com/sites/nathanva…
“So Hwang retreated from the individual shorts and emphasized broadly shorting the market.”

Told you so
The article quoted above independently corroborates most of what I wrote in my thread. And it too leaves us wondering what happened over the last 1-2 years (which is where I am curious):
Read 6 tweets
LST Profile picture
2 Apr
The archegos coverage is improving but there’s a key question that remains unanswered:

How/why/when did a guy whose portfolio was concentrated FAANG for many years (and before FAANG was an acronym) - my guess is 2012-2019 -

pivot into levered long highly shorted stocks?
We did diligence on Archegos 6 years ago - which is why I find most of the archegos coverage/comments laughable. None of you ever talked about them until last Friday. Armchair “experts” (meaning, quacks) all over.
Do the math- if their starting AUM was few hundred million $s and was concentrated FAANG - and had insanely long holding periods, maybe in some cases doubling down or averaging up - you then get to your few billion.

And that’s where my questions begin.
Read 20 tweets
LST Profile picture
1 Apr
My market predictions for rest of the year THREAD
S&P 500 will rise vertically to 6667 and then crash to 667 by Christmas.
Bridgewater and Remtech turn out to be the largest ponzu schemes in US history.
Read 13 tweets
LST Profile picture
1 Apr
Why do some of these people - for example, tech bros - write twitter threads or blog posts on why they’re moving to Florida/Miami?
It’s a free country - live/move wherever you please - but why make a public declaration? I have a few guesses

1. If they’re moving away from high tax jurisdictions like California they want to signal as loud as possible. should they get audited, they have additional “evidence”
2. They’re trying to encourage others - who are on the fence - to move there. “Network effects” etc etc

Am I being overly cynical here?
Read 6 tweets

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