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Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
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28 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Anyone know what part of the world these records are referring to?

June 2021 was between the 3rd and 5th hottest June globally, but the warmest June in the US.

However, July 2019 was the hottest July globally but not even a top-10 July for the US...
The world is warming due to human activity. If we don't reduce emissions the impacts will be severe. But its important that we get that stats right. carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…
It also true that the last five Julys were the five warmest Julys on record (even if the precise ordering is a tad off), and this July is on track to make it into the top six.
Also July 2020 (which was the second warmest July on record after 2019, and tied with 2016 for the warmest year on record) is weirdly missing from Bernie's list...

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Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
30 Jul
I really wish people would take time to understand the actual issue in question before tweeting hot takes. The @ScienceMagazine article is discussing high climate sensitivity of some models; it rather by definition has nothing to do with plausibility of future emissions scenarios
We covered the implausible sensitivity values in some CMIP6 models - and their disagreement with observations - last year. The solution, as the Science piece discusses, is to give more weight to models that better match observations. thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
As we discussed in a review last year, there is actually strong evidence to narrow the range of climate sensitivity, both on the high end but especially on the low end: sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/a…
Read 8 tweets
Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
26 Jul
Summer 2021 has seen record heat waves (and the hottest June on record over land regions), as well as extreme flooding. In our Q2 2021 State of the Climate update, we look back at the first six months of the year and what the next six months may hold: carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c… Image
Despite record summer heat in some areas, globally the year has been a bit cooler than the last few so far; 2021 is the seventh warmest year on record to-date. That still means its warmer than all but seven years since record began in the mid-1800s! Image
Here is 2021 to-date in context of the long-term warming across the five major global temperature records (NASA, NOAA, Hadley/UEA, Berkeley Earth, and Copernicus/ECMWF): Image
Read 8 tweets
Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
22 Jul
The world is on track for warming of around 3C above preindustrial levels by 2100 under policies in place today. This piece in the @TheEconomist does a good job of exploring the severe impacts that level of warming could have for human and natural systems: economist.com/briefing/2021/…
This reflects ongoing work to fill in an important gap: much of the climate impacts literature has historically focused on worst-case emissions outcomes of around 4C warming, or outcomes of well-below 2C where we meet Paris Agreement goals.
Of course, the climate system is uncertain. We could well end up at 4C or more warming (or get lucky and have closer to 2C). These tail risks – perhaps more than the impacts at 3C itself – provide a strong incentive for more rapid mitigation.
Read 4 tweets
Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
21 Jul
A good opinion piece in today's NYTimes marred by an unfortunate oversight. A world with 6x more coal use than today and 3x more emissions in 2100 is decidedly not "business as usual", it is an increasing implausible worst-case outcome. nytimes.com/2021/07/21/opi…
In this case its worth noting that the study the figure comes from does not refer to RCP8.5 as "business as usual", but rather "the highest warming scenario". The world is, thankfully, currently on track for something more similar to their modest emissions reductions scenario:
For more details, see my piece with @Peters_Glen in @Nature last year: nature.com/articles/d4158…
Read 6 tweets
Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
15 Jul
Fascinating piece by @ezraklein in the @nytimes. Among the wide-ranging discussion is a mention of a silver lining: the world is on track for around 3C warming compared to the 4 to 5C that seemed likely a decade ago. Unfortunately, some caveats are needed: nytimes.com/2021/07/15/opi…
When we try to project future warming, we are really dealing with three separate sets of uncertainties. The first, which we can control, is our emissions. There we have had some good news; global coal use peaked back in 2013, and is now in structural decline according to the @IEA
This means that truly nightmarish scenarios – where global emissions double or triple by 2100 – seem a lot less likely today when clean energy sources are cheaper than fossil fuels at the margin in many places as @Peters_Glen and I discussed in @nature: nature.com/articles/d4158…
Read 10 tweets
Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
14 Jul
Solar has had remarkable success making clean energy cheap. But in California its increasingly a victim of its own success. In a major new report we find solar value in CA fell 37% since 2014, and explore race between value deflation and cost declines: thebreakthrough.org/articles/quant…
1/
California leads the world in solar installation. In 2019 it generated 19.2% of all of its electricity from solar, with 13% from utility scale solar and the remainder from distributed rooftop solar: 2/
Solar is intermittent, but predictably so. It always generates electricity when the sun is shining, and in sunny California does not experience that much day-to-day variability. Heres what California Independent System Operator (CAISO) gen looks like in a typical spring week: 3/
Read 20 tweets

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