I really wish people would take time to understand the actual issue in question before tweeting hot takes. The @ScienceMagazine article is discussing high climate sensitivity of some models; it rather by definition has nothing to do with plausibility of future emissions scenarios
We covered the implausible sensitivity values in some CMIP6 models - and their disagreement with observations - last year. The solution, as the Science piece discusses, is to give more weight to models that better match observations. thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
As we discussed in a review last year, there is actually strong evidence to narrow the range of climate sensitivity, both on the high end but especially on the low end: sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/a…
The question of emissions scenarios is a completely different one. Within any given emissions scenario you can have a range of possible warming outcomes due to uncertainties in both climate sensitivity and carbon cycle feedbacks:
We have gotten more clarity on the emissions side in recent years. The structural decline of global coal use and rise of cheap clean energy means that nightmarish scenarios of 3x emissions by 2100 are much less plausible. nature.com/articles/d4158…
The world is on track for a best-estimate of 3C warming by 2100 under current policies. But we cannot fully rule out warming of 4C+ if we get unluckly. thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
The world also does not end in 2100, and as long as our emissions remain above zero the world will continue to warm. carbonbrief.org/explainer-will…
Even if we do end up at 3C warming vs the 4C or 5C that seemed more plausible a decade ago, it's still a pretty bad outcome for human and natural systems. We have a lot more work to do to cut emissions. economist.com/briefing/2021/…
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The world is warming due to human activity. If we don't reduce emissions the impacts will be severe. But its important that we get that stats right. carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…
It also true that the last five Julys were the five warmest Julys on record (even if the precise ordering is a tad off), and this July is on track to make it into the top six.
Summer 2021 has seen record heat waves (and the hottest June on record over land regions), as well as extreme flooding. In our Q2 2021 State of the Climate update, we look back at the first six months of the year and what the next six months may hold: carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…
Despite record summer heat in some areas, globally the year has been a bit cooler than the last few so far; 2021 is the seventh warmest year on record to-date. That still means its warmer than all but seven years since record began in the mid-1800s!
Here is 2021 to-date in context of the long-term warming across the five major global temperature records (NASA, NOAA, Hadley/UEA, Berkeley Earth, and Copernicus/ECMWF):
The world is on track for warming of around 3C above preindustrial levels by 2100 under policies in place today. This piece in the @TheEconomist does a good job of exploring the severe impacts that level of warming could have for human and natural systems: economist.com/briefing/2021/…
This reflects ongoing work to fill in an important gap: much of the climate impacts literature has historically focused on worst-case emissions outcomes of around 4C warming, or outcomes of well-below 2C where we meet Paris Agreement goals.
Of course, the climate system is uncertain. We could well end up at 4C or more warming (or get lucky and have closer to 2C). These tail risks – perhaps more than the impacts at 3C itself – provide a strong incentive for more rapid mitigation.
A good opinion piece in today's NYTimes marred by an unfortunate oversight. A world with 6x more coal use than today and 3x more emissions in 2100 is decidedly not "business as usual", it is an increasing implausible worst-case outcome. nytimes.com/2021/07/21/opi…
In this case its worth noting that the study the figure comes from does not refer to RCP8.5 as "business as usual", but rather "the highest warming scenario". The world is, thankfully, currently on track for something more similar to their modest emissions reductions scenario:
Fascinating piece by @ezraklein in the @nytimes. Among the wide-ranging discussion is a mention of a silver lining: the world is on track for around 3C warming compared to the 4 to 5C that seemed likely a decade ago. Unfortunately, some caveats are needed: nytimes.com/2021/07/15/opi…
When we try to project future warming, we are really dealing with three separate sets of uncertainties. The first, which we can control, is our emissions. There we have had some good news; global coal use peaked back in 2013, and is now in structural decline according to the @IEA
This means that truly nightmarish scenarios – where global emissions double or triple by 2100 – seem a lot less likely today when clean energy sources are cheaper than fossil fuels at the margin in many places as @Peters_Glen and I discussed in @nature: nature.com/articles/d4158…
Solar has had remarkable success making clean energy cheap. But in California its increasingly a victim of its own success. In a major new report we find solar value in CA fell 37% since 2014, and explore race between value deflation and cost declines: thebreakthrough.org/articles/quant… 1/
California leads the world in solar installation. In 2019 it generated 19.2% of all of its electricity from solar, with 13% from utility scale solar and the remainder from distributed rooftop solar: 2/
Solar is intermittent, but predictably so. It always generates electricity when the sun is shining, and in sunny California does not experience that much day-to-day variability. Heres what California Independent System Operator (CAISO) gen looks like in a typical spring week: 3/