Thread by @cfb_professor

So far everything Ive commented on in the realm of conference expansion has been make believe. Just day dreams. I did a little reading tho & wanted to go thru what is reality & most importantly, why? Ill be going thru all remaining P5 confs to shed light on their situation. #CFB

First, lets take a look at the #ACC. You can ignore anything you read regarding #NotreDame or any of the the #ACC schools leaving. Just keep right on scrolling, bc it isn’t happening. Why not? The #ACC has a grant of rights agreement which extends until 2036. (continued)

No school is going to be putting their TV revenue on the line for the next 15 yrs. Just wont happen. By the end of this grant of rights agreement tho, the #ACC will be making nearly half of what the #BigTen & #SEC will be in TV revenue (only $34 Million per team in ’19). (cont)

It was a terrible TV deal, but it has left the #ACC unpoachable. #NotreDame isnt a member in football, but as part of their scheduling agreement; they cant join a conference not named the #ACC until after 2036. Keep that little nugget of info in mind. (continued)

The #ACC will not be poached this time around but most likely will not expand either without a football commitment from #NotreDame. Next, let's look at the #BigTen.

Next, lets look at the #BigTen. They have to expand to keep up with the #SEC right? Wrong. Look at the TV revenue (thats what is driving this bus to begin w/ right?) The #SEC expanded 2 keep up w/ the #BigTen in TV revenue, & adding #Oklahoma & #Texas will do just that. (cont)

Dont believe me? Lets look at the numbers. The last covid free season, the #BigTen made in the ballpark of $780 Million in TV revenue or $55.6 Million per team. The #SEC made $634.2 Million in that same year or nearly $45.3 Million per team. (continued)

Many projections have the #SEC TV revenue for ’24-’25 to be around $812 Million b4 the addition of #Oklahoma/#Texas. Early estimates have OU/Texas TV Revenue being worth around $75 Million a piece by that time. (continued) #Sooners #HookEm

That total comes to $962 Million in TV revenue for the #SEC or $60.1 Million per team. If #BigTen TV revenue grows similarly as what is projected for the SEC (pre-expansion), then the #BigTen total TV revenue by ’24-’25 would be $962.5 Million or $68.7 Million per team. (cont)

#BigTen TV contract reups occur in '23. All that to say in order for the #BigTen to expand, teams being added need to be able to bring in atleast $70 Million per by ’24-’25. Doubtful any options can do this. This is why the #BigTen may opt to stay out of this round of expansion.

Next, lets take a look at the #Pac12. Ending the ’19 fiscal yr #Pac12 TV revenue was nearly $386.4 Million or $32.2 Million per team, way behind the #BigTen or #SEC. The Pac 12 grant of rights expires in ’24 so while this TV deal is the lowest of the remaining P5s (continued)

it isnt quite as bleak as the #ACC due to it being up for negtiations much quicker. This means that the #Pac12 is ripe 2 be poached, right? Im not so sure tho. I think it means if any conf is ripe for expansion its the #Pac12. So all u fans of the orphaned 8, look West. (cont)

When I said the #BigTen will likely stay out of this round of expansion I didnt mean they wouldnt do anything. There is an option without expanding & it almost happened 10 yrs ago. The #BigTen & #Pac12 could come to a scheduling agreement or a merger of sorts (continued)

to create a TV partnership between the 2 conferences. This all centers around their partnership & desire to keep the #RoseBowl matchup alive whose current contract w/ the #BigTen & #Pac12 runs thru ’26. (continued)

This would add a lot of new territory for the #BigTen TV package & give #Pac12 teams a significant bump in revenue. Now circling back to #NotreDame being tied to the #ACC thru ’36. The #Irish like to think they have very little in common with their #BigTen brethren, (continued)

but they do share some sacred rivalries w/ #Pac12 schools. In 2036, if the #BigTen merges in some fashion with the #Pac12 the #Irish, who are the last ultimate prize in #cfb, may be back on the table if they are looking for a football home. The End. Hope this was informative!