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Version 3 of the #CFBPlayoff rankings were released last night. What you expected? If youve followed along since early Oct you know the process. You werent surprised. For the rest of you, lets take a look & compare to what was projected using the same process used for 5 yrs.
First off, why does the committee use this process? Think about it. 14 busy guys make up this committee. They have roughly 60 hrs from when the last game ends on Sat to when they need to have this Top 25 created on Tues. If they evaluate only 30 teams to get that 25, how much
time is adequate to evaulate? 1 hr? Thats 30 hrs of evaluation. Half the time is gone & no one has slept. The process of getting a consensus out of 14 people hasnt even started. Thats why this process is kept so simple, & its why they have a defined predictable process.
Now on to the rankings. Lets take a look. I'll spoil it now, there aren't any surprises. They followed the same criteria they have for 5 yrs, predictable within less than 1 ranking per team for the entire Top 25.
25 #SMU (proj 24)
No surprise the #SMU is back in the rankings after a 1 week hiatus. 1 L, but with a SOS of 101 this keeps them well below the other 1 L G5 teams.
24 #AppState (proj 22)
Again, no surprise. Much like SMU, the SOS for AppState is 116 keeping them well below the other G5s. Difference between SMU & App St? Game Control is nearly 6 pts better for AppState giving them the nod.
23 #USC (proj 26)
The #Trojans were the last team out in the projs, so its no surprise they made it in the back of the rankings. This is excellent for the #Pac12 as it gives #Oregon an extra T25W.
22 #IowaState
Now if you squint a little, this would be the closest thing to surprising. Not really though. The #Cyclones have a SOS of 10 & have 1 QW along with 1 T25W. Thats a very good resume for the back half of the rankings & gets them in a week earlier than expected w/ 4Ls.
21 #OkState (proj 18)
No surprise here. The Cowboys have a very decent resume. SOS of 54, 1 T25W, 2 QWs; so what keeps them behind the G5 teams? They have that one L to an opp w/ a win% less than .500 which the committee flags as a bad loss. They'll stay around 20.
20 #BoiseState (proj 21)
Right where they were projected to be. The Broncos have 4 QWs, so what keeps them at the bottom of the upper G5 cluster? The SOS is 94 & the game control is meager at 14.8.
19 #Cincinnati (proj 20)
Again, no surprise here. The #Bearcats have a similar resume to #BoiseState, only the SOS is better at 85. They slipped below #Memphis as projected due to game control nearly 6 pts lower than the Tigers.
18 #Memphis (proj 19)
As I mentioned with #Cincinnati, this cluster of G5 teams all have similar resumes; so how is the order determined? Game Control and SOS. Memphis has the best SOS at 77 and best game control of the G5 cluster. Predictable.
17 #Iowa (proj 17)
Spot on. With a SOS of 30, they get the nod above the G5 cluster even with 3 Ls and low game control. They also have 3 QWs and 1 T25W under their belt.
16 #NotreDame (proj 14)
No surprise here. The #Irish have a good resume with SOS of 17, 5 QWs, 1 T25W. What keeps them outside the Top 15? Game control is 2nd lowest of the Top 16. Simple variables. Simple process. Predictable. #GoIrish
15 #Auburn (proj 16)
Auburn has the lowest game control of the Top 16. So how do they land here? SOS is 4. That's how. They also have 3 QWs and 1 T25W to add to their resume. The resume is why they are a 3L team in the Top 15. No surprise.
14 #Baylor (proj 15)
The Bears lose close to a Top 10 team & plummet. Its Anti-Big12 bias right? Nope. The committee has the SOS at 105, & thats really a problem when game control is also one of the worst. That tells the committee you've not controlled a weak sched. No surprise.
13 #Michigan (proj 13)
Right on. The #wolverines are sneaking back up the rankings. SOS of 48 w/ 2 T25Ws and 3 QWs under their belt. Game control is starting to rise as well. This is exactly where they are projected to be. #GoBlue
12 #Wisconsin (proj 12)
No surprise. Starting to get redundant huh? The #Badgers will have a chance to get back in the Top 10 before the end of the year. SOS is 43, 2 T25Ws, & 3 QWs. Game control is the best of any team outside the Top 10. Right where projected. #OnWisconsin
11 #Florida (proj 10)
The #Gators continue to be the highest 2 L ranked team and here's why. SOS is 15 and game control is decent. That offsets the relatively low number of QWs at 2. The #Gators could find their way back in the Top 10 by year's end. No surprise here.
10 #Minnesota (proj 11)
The #Gophers dropped below a team they beat in #PennState just as projected due to a lack luster resume. SOS is only 59 & game control is well below the rest of the Top 10. Add in only 3 QWs and 1 T25W & that gets you the back of the Top 10 as projected.
9 #Oklahoma (proj 9)
Right where they projected. The #Sooners did win against a Top 10 team on Sat, but did so in a way that hurt their Game Control. With a SOS of 89, cant have the 9th lowest game control in the Top 10. They still have a PO birth path, but will need some help.
8 #PennState (proj 8)
Spot on. PSU the best SOS in the Top 10 at 31 & also good game control along with 4 QWs and 2 T25Ws. That is what keeps them above a team who beat them head to head. Its a resume thing, not a week to week thing. Its predictable. #WeAre
7 #Utah (proj 7)
The #Utes have a bad SOS according to the committee. It is sitting at 100 right now. So why ranked so high? They have very good game control showing that they have adequately dominated that weak schedule. This is exactly where the committee's process pegs them.
6 #Oregon (proj 5)
Again, as predicted. What keeps #Oregon here? Nearly 7 pts more game control by Bama. I proj the #Ducks at 5 due to a much better SOS of 39 and 1 more QW than the #Tide. If anyone, the #Ducks have a gripe. Win out big & the ducks should have the 4 seed tho.
5 #Alabama (proj 6)
The Crimson Tide will most likely be the most disappointed fanbase come the final rankings. Yes, they sit at 5; but their playoff hope is on life support. SOS is 102 with only 2 QWs. The 3rd best game control is what keeps them clinging on. #RTR
4 #Georgia (proj 4)
The #Dawgs are the only 1 L team to truly control their own destiny. Win out and the Bulldogs are in the playoff with no argument. SOS is at 42 with 4 QWs and 3 T25Ws.
3 #Clemson (proj 3)
Clemson has no room for error. One loss and the #Tigers will have no shot at a playoff spot. They have a SOS of 79 which is proj to plummet into the 100s by year's end. No T25Ws also are glaring. What isn't? Their game control is 2nd best. #AllIn
2 #OhioState (proj 2)
If Ohio State wins out, they are projected to be the 1 seed. Currently the #Buckeyes have 5 QWs and 2 T25Ws with 2 more on deck. Add to that the best game control by nearly 7 pts and that's why they get the 1 seed if they win out as projected back in Oct.
1 #LSU (proj 1)
Game control took a little bit of a hit over the weekend, but the #Tigers resume can afford it with a SOS of 38, 6 QWs and 4 T25Ws. They are one of only 2 teams that could lose on championship weekend & still have a spot. They'll be a top 2 seed if they win out.
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