"The future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed." @GreatDismal
Corollary: The fastest way to accelerate the future is to distribute it.
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/distribute-t…
Corollary: The fastest way to accelerate the future is to distribute it.
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/distribute-t…
To distribute it, you need to spot it 1st
So how do you spot the future in the present?
Example: COVID
In early March, the future was SK and IT. They had gone through a wave before most other countries. They had taken ≠ measures with ≠ results.
Which one would you rather be?
So how do you spot the future in the present?
Example: COVID
In early March, the future was SK and IT. They had gone through a wave before most other countries. They had taken ≠ measures with ≠ results.
Which one would you rather be?
Defining a successful strategy for COVID was as easy as: "Hey guys, looks like SK is doing it well. Let's do the same!"
Unfortunately, we did like Italy 🤷♂️
Unfortunately, we did like Italy 🤷♂️
https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1279337914900439040?s=20
Distributing the future meant looking at what already worked and spreading it. You could do that in many ways.
Don't know how a new outbreak will evolve? Look at early regions/countries.
Don't know what measures work? Look at countries that performed well
Don't know how a new outbreak will evolve? Look at early regions/countries.
Don't know what measures work? Look at countries that performed well
Discussing scientific papers is more of the same: distributing their insights was distributing the future. Masks look like they work? Let's shape the future by spreading the word.
More broadly, you can distribute the future by taking past trends that are unlikely to stop.
Tech adoption is an example. If a tech's adoption curve picks up momentum, odds are it will keep it.
Tech adoption is an example. If a tech's adoption curve picks up momentum, odds are it will keep it.
Same thing for worldwide GDP growth: it's pretty stable
between 2 and 4%. You can make bets on where it's going by projecting from the past.
between 2 and 4%. You can make bets on where it's going by projecting from the past.
Or for population: its underlying drivers are ppl in (fertility rate, immigration) minus ppl out (life expectancy, emigration).
The biggest ones (fertility, LE) are usually sticky, and the others (migration) are usually small, sticky, or both
The biggest ones (fertility, LE) are usually sticky, and the others (migration) are usually small, sticky, or both
Or for languages: it will be very hard for any language to pass the inertia of English. You can bet on an English-speaking world within 1-2 generations
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/should-every…
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/should-every…
That's what VCs do when they invest: they look at early trends in industries or companies that make continued growth likely.
The look for S curves
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/s-curves
The look for S curves
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/s-curves
Knowing which past trends are most likely to continue in the future is the best way to increase confidence in your forecasts of the future.
And forecasting the future with accuracy makes you rich.
And forecasting the future with accuracy makes you rich.
I'll go into much more detail on how to make accurate forecasts in my next premium article.
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