Analogies have a bad rap vs. 1st principles. But both have a role to play.
When should you use Analogies vs. First Principles?
It depends on the novelty-complexity relationship.
The more you've seen a situation, the more you can predict what will happen next without understanding it. The ancients might not have known how the solar system worked, but they knew the sun was going to come up tomorrow.
So you can use analogies when you've seen something a lot and it's very replicable.
That's how a lot of the medical sciences work today, for example. We're not sure how things work, but if they work over and over again, let's keep doing them.
To distribute it, you need to spot it 1st
So how do you spot the future in the present?
Example: COVID
In early March, the future was SK and IT. They had gone through a wave before most other countries. They had taken ≠ measures with ≠ results.
Which one would you rather be?
Defining a successful strategy for COVID was as easy as: "Hey guys, looks like SK is doing it well. Let's do the same!"
Here's one way to understand vaccines vs. variants, why they're still good even if there are breakthroughs, and why you should protect yourself even if vaccinated:
Think of the virus like an invading army, and vaccines like your defense army. Thread 🧵
If an enemy army is about to invade, how are you better off: with, or without a defense army?
Obviously, with a defense.
Does it mean you will always win?
No.
The enemy might have lots of soldiers (high viral load), or its soldiers might be seasoned by war (aggressive variants).
The stronger it is, the more likely it is to run over your defenses, ravage you, and kill you.