Analogies have a bad rap vs. 1st principles. But both have a role to play.
When should you use Analogies vs. First Principles?
It depends on the novelty-complexity relationship.
The more you've seen a situation, the more you can predict what will happen next without understanding it. The ancients might not have known how the solar system worked, but they knew the sun was going to come up tomorrow.
So you can use analogies when you've seen something a lot and it's very replicable.
That's how a lot of the medical sciences work today, for example. We're not sure how things work, but if they work over and over again, let's keep doing them.
It's also why you can cook without knowing much about cooking, just following a recipe. It's predictable. It's repeatable. You can use analogies.
That breaks down in novel situations. For example, when there was a solar eclipse in ancient times, when a new virus appears, or when you want to create a new dish.
In these situations, the only way to predict what will work is to really master the fundamentals. To reason from 1st principles.
When you want to create electric cars that work or rockets that are reusable, these are novel situations. You must reason from 1st principles to predict what will work. That's why Elon Musk is so much into 1st principles. waitbutwhy.com/2015/11/the-co…
If a situation is very very complex and you don't understand it, you can't reason from 1st principles. But if some things have already worked in the past, you can use analogies, even if you don't get all the nuances.
Finally, if something is completely novel and you don't understand how it works, it's simply impossible to predict. Don't try. For these situations, create a resilient system, one that can deal with unforeseen setbacks. If it's antifragile, even better. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragi…
In your discipline, figure out where you lay in the novelty-complexity spectrum and that will tell you what kind of research you need to do to predict outcomes.
To distribute it, you need to spot it 1st
So how do you spot the future in the present?
Example: COVID
In early March, the future was SK and IT. They had gone through a wave before most other countries. They had taken ≠ measures with ≠ results.
Which one would you rather be?
Defining a successful strategy for COVID was as easy as: "Hey guys, looks like SK is doing it well. Let's do the same!"
Here's one way to understand vaccines vs. variants, why they're still good even if there are breakthroughs, and why you should protect yourself even if vaccinated:
Think of the virus like an invading army, and vaccines like your defense army. Thread 🧵
If an enemy army is about to invade, how are you better off: with, or without a defense army?
Obviously, with a defense.
Does it mean you will always win?
No.
The enemy might have lots of soldiers (high viral load), or its soldiers might be seasoned by war (aggressive variants).
The stronger it is, the more likely it is to run over your defenses, ravage you, and kill you.