.@USAID chief travels to #Sudan and #Ethiopia this week where she will celebrate the achievements in Sudan, their turn away from genocide and authoritarianism, and admonish Ethiopia for turning toward it. reuters.com/world/africa/u…
It is oddly reminiscent of a trip she took (with the current @USAmbUN) to the Central African Republic in 2013 as that country was being torn apart by genocidal violence. nytimes.com/2013/12/20/wor…
Even though she is in a new role now, where humanitarian access is her foremost priority in Ethiopia, where per @declanwalsh the government's "unofficial blockade" has kept more than 400k in famine conditions, I hope she raises the real risk of genocide. nytimes.com/2021/07/29/wor…
While many argue those risks are hyperbolic, to prevent it from happening you have to raise it and help officials on all sides understand the effect their dehumanizing speech is having and warn of the lessons potential perpetrators take from having massacres followed by impunity
Power's impact on the CAR crisis in 2013 was instrumental in rallying Washington's bureaucracy to engage even though CAR was not seen as strategic. Preventing genocide was a moral imperative. In #Ethiopia, we have both a strategic and moral imperative, but with much less leverage
Many argue that the leverage we do have: human rights sanctions, AGOA suspension, investment freeze, arms embargo, are most powerful when threatened but not deployed. But after 8 months of threatening and continued deterioration at what point does the US look feckless?
Like the UN, which has muted its frustration and criticism over systematic government blockages in hopes of gaining access. That clearly hasnt worked. Tough, honest and frank talk is required if we hope to have any credibility. @SamanthaJPower can at least be counted on for that.
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Cooler heads in Egypt and Sudan continue to prevail. But I would not be surprised if sometime soon a cyber attack on the GERD took it offline before power generation could begin. The world underestimated how regionally divisive the 2nd filling has been. aje.io/kqh3wt
To be clear, Im not advocating any effort to attack/disable the GERD, but the quiet from Sudan and Egypt since the 2nd filling doesnt mean they are letting it go quietly. Im deeply concerned that Ethiopia's unilateral action will beget more unilateral action by the other side.
Despite modest public statements from the UNSC, tensions are only mounting in the region and there is no serious attempt to address Sudanese or Egyptian concerns. I know from contacts there that they are scenario planning multiple responses. One contemplated is cyber.
It seems from the latest @UNOCHA report that the biggest challenge is not quantity of aid, but limited access due to fighting. But because Abiy declared victory 2 months ago in his law and order operation, he is clearly not admitting that he is still struggling militarily. And..
Continues to need Eritrean and Amhara forces to stay in the fight. Admitting that would be a humiliation. Admitting that fighting is as intense as it is in many areas is as well. But its clear that withdrawing outside forces wont be possible in the near term. As such..
Its becoming increasing clear to me that at a senior political level, Sudan's removal from the SST list is becoming bundled with the President's larger Middle East peace plan and securing normalized relations between as many Arab states and Israel as possible.
While it is true that #Sudan is moving forward on the explicit requirements (settling terror claims) and there is no explicit quid pro quo that Sudan normalize with Israel to be removed, the way Pompeo's visit to the region is being framed is as part of broader regional peace.
Moreover, the news that Sudan will be invited to a US-led, Gulf hosted Middle East peace conference suggests that it isnt enough that Sudan cast aside a dictator and got removed from the SST list, but that it also joined a US-organized Arab coalition of states friendly to Israel.