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30 Jul, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

The 7-day average for admissions has clearly peaked and fell slightly today, though it’s still up 12% over the week.

No log scales or R calculations necessary now to see the change in trend! 1/6 Image
Growth in admissions has slowed further across all regions. Generalising slightly, the regions with higher current admissions numbers look like they are past the peak, while those with fewer admissions still appear to be approaching it. 2/6 Image
In our latest blog @AdeleGroyer updates our analysis of the vaccination status of hospital admissions in England. Although the majority of admissions over age 50 are vaccinated, this is to be expected given very high vaccine uptake in the population. 3/6
covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…
New @NHSEngland data demonstrates clearly that over three-quarters of admissions *with* COVID are primarily being treated *for* COVID. Additionally, some of the “with COVID” admissions are being treated for conditions likely triggered by COVID. 4/6
Hospital bed occupancy lags admissions. Occupancy for COVID-19 has risen in the last week. Mechanical ventilation bed occupancy is up by 26% and other bed occupancy is up by 15%. 5/6 Image
COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals continue to increase. The daily average has increased by 32% this week. Of course deaths lag admissions so we expect they will follow the trend.

The purple estimates are based on the pattern of reporting delays in the last two months. 6/6 Image

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More from @COVID19actuary

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
31 Jul
There’s no Friday Report this week (we publish these fortnightly) but here’s a thread with a summary of some of our other recent output for your weekend reading.
We started the week with @lrossouw’s bulletin showing that vaccines could save many more lives in the developing world, where supply remains limited, rather than being used as boosters in already highly-vaccinated populations.

covid-arg.com/post/to-boost-…
Tuesday’s CMI Mortality Monitor showed a second consecutive week with death rates higher than the benchmark. That follows several weeks of significantly lower death rates, and is not fully explained by the rise in COVID fatalities.
Read 13 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
30 Jul
On 19 July, England moved to Step 4 of the #roadmap - lifting most of the legal restrictions around #socialdistancing.

Using @Google Mobility data, @AdeleGroyer analyses how the public responded in our latest blog.

covid-arg.com/post/freedom-d…
There was a small uptick in presence at "Retail & Recreation" facilities such as restaurants, shopping centres, theme parks, museums and cinemas.

At the weekend, people took advantage of the warm, sunny weather and spent time outdoors in "Parks" which includes places like public parks and beaches. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
21 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

752 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 34% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 16 days.

There’s been a continued fall in the rate of increase but this is still rapid growth in admissions. 1/6
To see the slight fall in the rate of increase more clearly, here is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions. With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, it probably understates R slightly.

Our “admissions-R” has fallen below 1.3. 2/6
All English regions are showing strong increases in hospital admissions over the past week except the North West where numbers have been flatter. Growth is fastest in the South West, up 67% while other regions are up by 40-50%. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
19 Jul
In our new blog, @AdeleGroyer compares the vaccination status of hospital admissions in England to the general population.

For those aged 50plus, the unvaccinated 5% make up 34% of hospital admissions. 79% of people are fully vaccinated but make up just 43% of admissions.
At younger ages the vaccination relationship is similar.

For those aged below 50, only 46% are unvaccinated but they make up 87% of hospital admissions. 21% of people are fully vaccinated but make up just 4% of admissions.

covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…
Our new blog examines both the vaccine status of admissions and also the implied hospitalisation rate for different groups, showing how this varies by age and vaccination status.

This provides a clear demonstration of the effectiveness of vaccines.
covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…
Read 6 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
19 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

622 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 37% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 16 days.

There’s been a slight fall in the rate of increase but this is still rapid growth in admissions. 1/6
To see the slight fall in the rate of increase more clearly, here is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions. With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, it probably understates R slightly.

Our “admissions-R” has fallen from over 1.4 to 1.3. 2/6
All English regions except the North West are showing strong increases in hospital admissions over the past week. Growth is fastest in the South West, where admissions doubled in a week. Admissions have been flat in the North West. Other regions are up by 40-50%. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
16 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

636 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 42% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 14 days.

There’s been a slight fall in the rate of increase but this is still rapid growth in admissions. 1/5
To see the slight fall in the rate of increase more clearly, here is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions. With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, it probably understates R slightly.

The fall in the last few days is quite clear. 2/5
All English regions are showing strong increases in hospital admissions over the past week. Growth is fastest in London, the East and South West. Growth is now slowest in the North West. Admissions are highest in the North East, and still rising rapidly. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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