"We were down to 12,000 infections a day; we are now back to over 80,000/day... [primarily where] vaccine coverage remains too low: In Florida, other states in the South, like Missouri, and Arkansas"
-Dr. Chris Beyrer, prof of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health
Some good news: An uptick in the vaccination rate in states where cases are up: Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana + Florida have seen steady increases.
Delta variant is much more contagious than other forms of the virus, + may cause more severe disease.
BAML: Florida is a Delta case study, with >1 in 5 new COVID cases
Evidence of a change in behavior: Vaccine rates have outpaced that of the US, similar to other states with severe outbreaks, visits to retail / recreation locations have fallen faster in FL than rest of USA.
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On Friday, I had an “extra special” MiB guest – I interviewed Brain Deese, Director of the White House National Economic Council under President Joe Biden.
The EO reveals a major policy change: A complete of decades of lax antitrust enforcement, much greater scrutiny of M&A + tougher enforcement against anti-competitive industry consolidation.
It is important to recognize the risks we create when working from a Narrative that:
1. We agree with (Confirmation Bias) 2. We disagree with (Cognitive dissonance) 3. We are unaware we lack the skillset to assess the accuracy of (Dunning Kruger)
Lots of happenings in Residential Real Estate. But be careful not to get caught up focusing on the wrong things -- no, it's not about inflation or NIMBY or PE rentals.
The big issues are technology, ultra-low rates, capital, and changing demographics.
A quick thread
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Let's go thru some of the things that matter far less, beginning with prices.
What matters most are not the price paid, but the monthly carrying costs. This is why low rates have a big impact, and tend to send prices higher.
Try to avoid chart/statistics crimes, like focusing on Year-over-year data from the pandemic lows. Ignorance? Bias? Fraud? I don't, but avoid this kind of garbage.
That is the track record the "Inflationistas" have amassed in predicting Inflation, Deflation, Disinflation - really ANY "Flation - so far in the 21st century.
0 for 14
My advice: Pour yourself a tall glass of STFU + go find another expertise to pretend to have...
How can any economist have missed 3 decades of deflation?
Automation, global labor arbitrage, digitalization + outsourcing/offshoring all have worked to drive global prices lower.
Missing this and/or ignoring it explains that awful inflation-predicting track record