Weekly French vaccination thread.

A good week for the Fr. vax programme – an av. of 381,131 first jabs a day, back to the heady levels of May. In the last 4 days, the figure has been 400,000+. 1st shots have more than doubled since Macron wielded his big stick on 12 July.
1/12 Image
Protests by a minority also continue. Over 150,000 people are predicted to take part in 100 marches or demos against the health pass today. Will the numbers exceed last week’s 160,000 across Fr.? Or will protests be blunted by the start of Fr’s peak holiday month tomorrow? 2/12
The 4th (Delta) wave of the Covid pandemic is gaining ground (over 21,000 cases a day) but the increase is slightly less rapid than last week. Deaths/acute cases are starting to rise from a low base. Over 1,000 people are in acute care (up from the high 800’s 10 days ago). 3/12 Image
The vax programme could also be expected to fall off the pace as the Aug hols begin. All the signs suggest that it won’t – or not v much. The Doctolib booking site says enough appointments have been made to allow Fr to hit is target of 50m over-12’s 1st jabbed by 31 Aug. 4/12
To recap…Macron said on 12 July that access to bars/ restos/long-haul transport etc would be limited to those with a health-pass (neg test/recovery from C19/full-vax). This will take effect from 9 Aug. Health workers must be vaxxed by 15 Sept or face suspension without pay. 5/12
Two thirds of French people approve Macron’s approach. One third, according to a recent poll, support the protesters. Govt strategy is gradually to separate the moderate (defenders of freedom, anti-vaxxers etc) from the nutty or the cynical-political (hard-right/hard-left.)
6/12
This week’s figures…
Over 2.6, first jabs were given in France in the last 7 days – an av. of 381,131 a day. The overall jabbing rate fell slightly to 662,208 a day as fewer 2nd jabs came due. As of last night, France had 1st jabbed 42,142,789 people or 62.5% of its pop. 7/12 Image
Over 35m people – 35,139, 584; or 51.1% of the pop. – are fully vaccinated (two jabs for most; one for J&J and Covid recoverees).
The first-vaxxed include 1.9m 12-17 years olds (37.5% of that age group). If you leave them out 77.3% of French adults have been first-vaxxed. 8/12
If France reaches its target of 50m 1st-jabs by end Aug, circa 90% of adults will have been 1st- jabbed. I was attacked by some people when I pointed out in the “i” this week that Fr. is on course to overtake the UK total of 1st jabs by 15/16 Aug. 9/12
inews.co.uk/opinion/france…
Objecters pointed out rightly that the UK has already vaxxed 88% of its adults. Its vaxxing rate was bound to slow. Yes, but not as much as it has: only 44,000 a day, one tenth of the Fr figure. Many people in UK are vaxxed but 36% of 18-29’s – 3,000,000 people - are NOT. 10/12
France also has weak spots. Regional and age spread of vaxxing is uneven. 93% of 70-somethings are 1st-jabbed but only 82% of the 80+. The SE (Nice-Marseille area) and overseas depts/territories lag behind. The 7m 1st jabs booked for Aug should close these gaps a little. 11/12
It’s going to be an even stranger summer than last year.

12/12

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More from @john_lichfield

21 Jul
Weekly French Covid thread
The 4th wave of Covid, the Delta wave, is here - ahead of schedule. Cases have more than doubled - up 129% - in 7 days. Four fifths of Fr cases are now Delta. The government is alarmed. New restrictive rules re likely in the worst-hit areas. 1/12
The health defence council is meeting under President Macron’s chairmanship this morning. PM Jean Castex will make a statement later. The government feels that it can no longer wait for the effect of accelerated vaccinations/the widened health pass from 1 August. 2/12
Likely measures are a return to outdoor masks and 11pm resto/bar closures in worst-afflicted départements (clustered around the coast). This has already happened in Pyrénées Orientales (Perpignan), where the incidence rate has leaped to 372.7 (4X the national rate of 83.9) 3/12
Read 13 tweets
17 Jul
Weekly vax thread.
Usually this Saturday thread is about the French vax programme. I’ll come to that; lots of news on that.
But I’ll start with the biggest news of the day – the bizarre UK govt U-turn forcing quarantine on travellers returning to England from France. 1/12
This weird decision was supposedly taken because the Beta (South African) virus is exploding in France. It’s not. It’s rising slightly in European France and heavily present in the Indian Ocean island of Réunion, which is part of France and counts in the French figures. 2/12
In sum: the Johnson govt is abandoning social restrictions in England on Monday although Covid cases in UK are booming BUT imposing restrictions on travellers from Fr because of a problem which the French govt doesn’t think is a problem. Diverting attention? Looking tough? 3/12
Read 12 tweets
14 Jul
Weekly French Covid thread

Two numbers justify Macron’s big stick approach to vaccination in his TV address on Monday.
1. There were 6,950 C19 cases yesterday, bringing the daily av. to 4,324 (70% up in a week).
2. 2.5m people have signed up for 1st jabs since he spoke.
1/10
There was an instant impact yesterday – a new record of 792,339 jabs of all kinds and 269,776 1st shots (which had been running at below 200,000 a day).
The Doctolib site now reckons that France will cross the threshold of 40m 1st shots (circa 77% of adults) in 10 days.
2/10
The original target date for France to reach 40m first shots was tomorrow but the government foolishly put it back last month to the end of August. The new target may now be reached five weeks early. Coercion works, it seems.
3/10.
Read 10 tweets
12 Jul
President Macron went further than expected in actions to check the Delta variant in his TV address tonight. There will be compulsory vaccination for health workers and others in contact with the vulnerable but he warned that compulsory jabs for ALL may also be considered. 1/4
The digital health pass demanded for access to big public events (double vaccinaton, proof of recovery from Covid or negative test) will be extended in 2 stages – to all events with 50+ people from 22 July and to cafes, restos, long-distance trains/buses and hosps from Aug.
2/4
To encourage people to get vaxxed, there will be charges for Covid tests from Sept. On other issues, Macron said he would revive pensions reform shelved because of the pandemic – but only when the health crisis was over. In other words, not before next April’s election. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
7 Jul
Weekly French Covid thread
Any hope of France containing the Delta variant can be abandoned. Delta’s share of new cases has doubled again in the last week to 40%. Case numbers and the incidence rate are climbing once more. The figures remain small but that won’t last.
1/10
President Macron has convened a meeting of the health defence council today. Apart from urging more people to get vaccinated (and those numbers are also rising again) it’s not clear what the government plans to do. No return to social restrictions is envisaged so far.
2/10
The daily average of cases in Fr. has risen to 2,534, from 1,835 a week ago. The incidence rate – cases per 100,000 people/7 days – was 24.1 on Sat, compared to 18.5 a week before. Overall numbers are not huge but they conceal strong surges in some areas and some age groups. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
26 Jun
Weekly French vaccination thread.
A confusing week – worrying in some respects; encouraging in others.
Demand for 1st vaccinations has slumped again and the Delta variant has jumped to 10% of new cases. On the other hand, 2nd jabs are booming and cases remain very low. 1/12
First doses have dropped to an average of around 200,000 a day, compared to 400,000 in late May and an average of nearly 300,000 for the whole of June. Overall, the vax rate remains on a high plateau of just under 600,000 because of the record rate of 2nd jabs. 2/12
The government is disturbed by the collapse in demand for 1st jabs. (But it institutionalised the slump by shifting the target for 40m 1st jabs from 15 July to 31 Aug.) Efforts are to be made to re-ignite demand with “no appointment” vax-centres and vaxxing in malls etc. 3/12
Read 12 tweets

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