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31 Jul, 8 tweets, 5 min read
7/31 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Casedemic is here. Cases are way ahead of the 2020 Summer Wave pace, while general hospitalizations, ICU, and fatalities are running increasingly behind 2020.

1/n
 .
.
Positivity Rate

Antigen Positivity Rate had a bunch of revisions, but still is trying to crest. PCR Positivity doesn't look to be far behind. Is 20% the magic number, as it has been in 2020 Summer and Winter waves, or will it crest below that?

2/n
 .
.
Cases -

Running way ahead of 2020 pace now. Remember these 2 waves are 13 months apart to the day.

Second day in a row and 3rd out of 4 above 10,000 cases.

#Casedemic and here's why...

3/n
 .
Hospitalizations in the 2021 Summer wave are not keeping pace with 2020. Neither general beds or especially ICU.

I'll do fatalities later or in the morning. 44 reported today, which if you read yesterday's update, the fatalities are substantially behind 2020 pace.

4/n
Fatalities Part 1

* Primer for background will be in 7/n
* Fatalities through same point in both waves - 2021 is significantly behind 2020 in both cumulative & 7DMA
* My updated projections on fatalities come out on Wednesday. Already appears I'll revise downward again

5/n
 .
Fatalities Part 2

44 Fatalities reported. Per pattern so far, fatalities are coming in sooner & in lower qtys than expected by the modeling, again only 10 2 weeks & older.

1st half of July is not filling in the divergence below the hospitalization line as much as expected

6/n
Primer to understand the rather complicated topic of Date of Death reporting, and building a model to project how many fatalities are in for a date in the past, and then comparing that vs 2020 wave.

7/n
To conclue: here is the 7/31 summary:

* Antigen pos% is peaking, watching PCR for a similar peak

vs. the 2020 Summer Wave, 2021 Delta wave:
* Cases are higher
* Hospitalizations slightly lower and curves are flatter
* Fatalities significantly lower

Hang in there

8/end

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
30 Jul
7/30 Texas C19 Case, Hospitalization & Fatality Update

THREAD:

This is quickly becoming a Delta Casemedic. Huge Case dumps from Harris & Bexar (again) put case count to 13,000+ today. Now tracking ahead of 2020.

Meanwhile Hosps & Fatalities are tracking behind 2020.

1/n
We will start with Leading Indicator of Positivity rate.

* Antigen Positivity has peaked and is declining.
* PCR Positivity is still climbing.
* Based on history, PCR follows closely behind Antigen, within days, so a peak should be imminent.

Next, cases.

2/n
 . ImageImage
As mentioned in 1/n, huge case dumps in Bexar & Harris, over 6K of the 13K really skewing things. Bexar does just once a week, but did a second one of 2K today.

2021 Summer Cases are running hotter than 2020 now. No way there's not a crap-ton of breakthrough cases.

3/n ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
30 Jul
As mentioned yesterday, 35 reported C19 deaths for the day. The breakdown of those 35 is below as is the main hospitalization over fatalities Chart. The divergence at the far right is due to fatality arrivals to the state, and what appears to be reduced lethality of Delta

1/n
 . ImageImage
How am I making this still very early assertion about Delta's lethality? Several reasons to combine to explain:

1) Per my other daily thread the 2021 summer wave is almost identical thus far to the 2020 summer wave, 13 months apart, from a case & hospitalization perspective

2/n ImageImage
2 days ago, I posted this thread regarding projection of fatality arrivals to the state, the model I built & how the actuals over the 1st week of this project were coming in below projections. Its a solid model built off past Texas reporting.

3/n
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
28 Jul
Texas C19 Fatality reporting 7/27

Last week I made projections based on how death certs arrive to the state. Projected days 7-28 going back from 7/20. 22 projections. Fatalities are coming in below projections, and divergence from hospitalizations is significant - so far.

1/n
Gonna geek out a little. You have to read this chart & see comments.

Last week I projected 7-28 days back from 7/20, using the arrival estimator. Those projections are now 14-35 days back. 17 of 22 projections in green haven't made or were revised downwards this week.

2/n
Stay with me. So based on my 7/20 projections I projected the graph, showing fatalities starting to rise following the hospitalization curve. Here is what I projected last week vs actual from yesterday (full chart in 1/n)

3/n
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
27 Jul
.
Zero Covid is a failed, impossible, idiotic "strategy"

"Covid-19 was never an existential threat. But we have behaved like it was, racking up trillions in extra debt & trashing norms of liberal democracy that might not quickly, if ever, return."

1/x
aier.org/article/zero-c…
"Future generations will inherit a less free, more embittered society, where vaccination status, attitudes to compulsory masking and lockdowns divide people as much as class and race have before."

2/x

aier.org/article/zero-c…
None of this goes into the models experts have used to advocate Zero Covid. In their models, humans are drones incapable of making their own risk assessments but fortunate to be governed by wise, selfless leaders w/ access to unlimited central bank $

3/x
aier.org/article/zero-c…
Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
21 Jul
US virologist Ralph Baric, author of the 2013 paper “A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence,” says Wuhan Dr. Shi's Coronavirus work in a less safe security level of BSL-2 is “an actual scandal”

1/n
technologyreview.com/2021/06/29/102…
"NIH decided the risk was worth it. In a...fateful decision, it funded work similar to Baric’s at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Unnoticed by most...was a key difference...the Chinese work was carried out at biosafety level 2 (BSL-2), much lower than Baric’s BSL-3+

2/n
"what occurred is a scenario Fauci himself had outlined in a 2012 commentary...Fauci wrote “Scenario [where] an important gain-of-function experiment involving a virus with serious pandemic potential...leads to an outbreak and ultimately triggers a pandemic?”"

#Sick

3/n
Read 13 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
20 Jul
Texas C19 Fatality reporting RE: Delta Variant.

1/n
This will be a thread, no way to put it in 1 tweet. Fatalities are reported by Date of Death. Death Certificates arrive to the State over time. This arrival can be charted, below is charting from Aug 20.

1/n Stay with me
Every day, the state reports the number of fatalities, but each day's report is comprised of anywhere between 1 & 60 days worth of fatalities. Each Death Cert takes a different amount of time to process.

Again from August, the report for 8/23. This goes on every single day.

2/n
Going back to the Aug 20 arrival charts, I charted every day's report. Basically if a day is X number of days in the past, Y% of the deaths have come in for it.

Today minus 14 days - 57% of the fatalities have been reported for that date.
- 21 Days - 79%
- 28 Days - 90%

3/n
Read 8 tweets

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