Thread by @groove_sdc

So a couple things. We're all anticipating the #OH11 primary soon. We're pulling for Shontel Brown but she is still the underdog. Nina Turner has the name recognition, more money and more celebrity endorsements. But here's how I expect things to go regardless of what happens.

Shontel Brown is now and forever an enemy of the Bernie cult. They will hound her for the rest of her life. Regardless if she wins or loses but especially if she wins. Their publications will run endless smears against her. Their Twitter army will spend years denigrating her.

If Nina Turner loses progressives and the Bernie adjacent left will immediately pivot to blaming EVERYTHING on the "Democratic Establishment." They will take no blame for the type of campaign Turner ran. Their publications will run countless stories on how she was "cheated."

If Nina Turner wins, they win take ALL THE CREDIT for why she won. They won't discuss Turner's name recognition or her SUPER PAC or the loads of out-of-state money she got. They will only frame it as a "victory" for grassroots progressives vs. the Establishment.

If Turner wins, the mainstream media will eat up this narrative. No. 1 because it will be fed to them by the Bernie-aligned media (The Intercept/Daily Poster) and No. 2 because they're too lazy to double-check if this is actually accurate.

So if Turner wins, get ready to see The Squad all over MSNBC, CNN, NPR, Sunday shows, etc. And they will all be repeating the same message in unison: "this win shows progressives are the center of the party." That would be a lie but their messaging will be uniform.

If Turner loses, get ready to see The Squad all over MSNBC, CNN, NPR, Sunday shows, etc. Why? Because their message will be uniform: "why is the Democratic establishment targeting us?" They will not discuss their targeting of Black Democrats though and the media won't ask.

If Shontel Brown wins, expect so-called progressives and Bernie campaign alums to work hard to sabotage her. The consensus is whoever wins the primary will beat the Republican but that won't stop The Intercept/Daily Poster for painting her as "corrupt" until the election happens.

And if she wins the general and takes her seat, expect so-called progressives and Bernie campaign alums to work hard to make her seem ineffectual or a sellout. Every campaign donation she gets will suddenly become "proof" that she's "corporate-bought."

If Nina Turner wins, expect these same left-wing publications to write some pretty fawning articles that will border on advocacy. They will paint her as a conquering hero of the establishment. They've already started but if she wins watch them kick it into overdrive.

Another thing to watch out for is how dedicated these so-called progressives and Bernie campaign alums are to demonizing the Congressional Black Caucus and Clyburn. If Turner wins they'll start arguing both are "irrelevant" and their endorsements don't matter or don't work.

Don't get it twisted. They already hate Clyburn and the CBC. But this race will only punch it into overdrive. If Shontel Brown wins, watch them start to get more vocal about the need to get rid of the CBC. Before they've been coy about it. Now they're out-and-proud about it.

Also if Turner wins, watch how quickly her core supporters turn against her. Remember they've told people Democrats are an impediment and you can just will your way to passing Bernie's agenda. You saw it with AOC. Expect something similar with Turner.

Also watch how she handles this conundrum. On one hand if she's a saboteur, she'll ostracize her constituents in the district. If she supports the party and Biden's agenda, her supporters will freak. My guess is she won't handle this well and will ramp up the performative stunts.

If Turner wins, she'll have a decision to make when it comes to the CBC. She's representing a Black district. It would be natural to join but her core supporters hate them. This will be her first test of independence. Will she mend fences? How can you not in a Black district?

If Brown wins, it will be because the Black district she represents wants her to partner with the party and Biden. She will no doubt do that. Expect progressives and Bernie campaign alums to paint this as a bad thing tho. Ignore the voters. Promote Bernie's agenda at all costs.

Left-wing progressives and their sympathetic journalists in left-leaning publications will not press Brown's detractors on this either. They'll say "Bernie's platform is popular" and she has a responsibility to it but won't answer if Biden's agenda is more popular in the district

If Turner wins, expect progressives, their special interest groups and sympathetic journalists to paint it as a blow to Biden as well and a harbinger to midterm losses. They're actually cheering for Republicans to win back the House so this narrative fits with their intentions.

If Brown wins, expect white progressives to press Black progressives to go after Black leadership in the party and expect them to oblige. The loudest Black voices on the left will argue we're not smart enough to make our own decisions, similar to the "Democrat plantation" framing

If Brown wins, expect some pretty alarming racism and sexism from certain left-leaning or progressive Twitter accounts. Oh they'll apologize later. Or claim these were bots. But keep your eyes peeled after they call the race. The masks will slip. Watch.

If Turner wins expect a round of "Bernie the Kingmaker" stories by the usual suspects. It's canon in the Bernie cult to credit him for everything and blame him for nothing. If Brown wins tho expect a round of "Why Democrats are making a mistake by not listening to Bernie" stories

People have picked up that this race is a proxy war but that's actually an indictment of how bad political journalism is. Every race involving the Bernie left is a proxy war. They asked for this war and initiated it. Y'all late to the party if you're just noticing.

And I guess my point is regardless of what happens or who wins this race this proxy war will continue. And it will be indefinite. An indefinite war upon Black districts like #OH11. We are the collateral damage in their Glorious Revolution to kick us out the party.

So buckle up. Mourn or celebrate depending on who wins. Take a deep breath after it's over. But be on alert. Because this war is ongoing. And these are not folks that will just go away. Ever. Know that.

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