Weekly French Covid thread
The upward curve of new cases – almost all Delta variant now - has flattened for the 1st time since late June. Hospital admissions, acute cases and deaths are surging but that reflects the boom in infections in previous weeks.
1/12
The upward curve of new cases – almost all Delta variant now - has flattened for the 1st time since late June. Hospital admissions, acute cases and deaths are surging but that reflects the boom in infections in previous weeks.
1/12
Overall, it’s good news. Imagine you’re on a beach on a calm day. Breakers are coming ashore because of a gale yesterday. If new cases have truly peaked (still unclear), the 4th wave in Fr. may be less dramatic than feared. This seems to match the pattern in UK, NL, P, Sp.
2/12
2/12
New cases in the last 7 days averaged 21,788, after 19,436 last week. Cases had previously been doubling weekly. The incidence rate (IR) nationwide is stable at 225 (cases per 100,000 people in 7 days). The IR in 20-somethings – previously calamitous – has fallen sharply. 3/12 
In one of the worst afflicted départements– Pyrenées Orientales - the rate is falling dramatically. But as @nicolasberrod’s graph shows, cases are still very high in Martinique in the Fr. W. Indies (and in other parts of Fr scattered around the globe). 4/12
The weakness of the 4th wave (if weak it proves) may be attributable to high rates of double-vaxxing. Certainly the vax rate in Martinique and other Dom-Toms (2m people in all) is appalling – only 20 to 30% people 1st jabbed, partly because of deep cultural resistance. 5/12
The case figures are also v bad in upper Corsica, where hospitals have been placed in emergency measures. Worst incidence rates:
Martinique 1,074.8 ; Haute-Corse 838.9 ; Guadeloupe 811.1; Alpes-Maritimes 733.1; Hérault 610; Bouches-du-Rhône 596.5 ; Pyrénées-Orientales 534. 6/12
Martinique 1,074.8 ; Haute-Corse 838.9 ; Guadeloupe 811.1; Alpes-Maritimes 733.1; Hérault 610; Bouches-du-Rhône 596.5 ; Pyrénées-Orientales 534. 6/12
Hospital admissions, acute cases and deaths have started to rise sharply in Fr. from a very low base. Deaths have risen to an average 43 a day, from 27 a week ago and 16.8 before that. There were 1,331 patients in acute care last night, 99 up in a day and 353 up in a week. 7/12
These figures are worrying but predictable after the surge in cases since June. Over 80% of those in hospital,, according to the government, are unvaccinated. Many are in their 30s or younger. The numbers will continue to rise but should then flatten with the case numbers. 8/12
The French vax programme continues to boom – yes, even in August. Since Macron announced the health pass three weeks ago, more than 7m have been first-jabbed – more than double the previous rate. There were 393,491 first shots yesterday bringing the total to 43,289,211.
9/12
9/12
If you subtract from this total the 2m 12-17 year olds who have been 1st jabbed (40% of the age group) France has now first vaccinated 79.4% of its adult population. The end of Aug target of 50m first jabs (74% of the population; 87% of over-12’s) is easily within reach. 10/12
The new health pass – double vaccination/ neg tests/Covid recovery or no fun/long distance travel – takes effect from Monday. Protests by a minority continue but the vax figures above, imo, vindicate Macron’s policy. A decision on 3rd booster shots in Sept is due next week. 11/12
Hang in there. 12/12
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
