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@misconfig_exe Profile picture
@misconfig_exe
Aug 5, 2021 • 12 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
(づ｡◕‿‿◕｡)づ 🌊тнє 5тн ωανє ιѕ ¢σмιηg 🌊
⤷ And the Φ #GoldenRatio Φ plays a key role 👀

The #Bitcoin bull run is missing its 5th wave.
This final push will send #BTC and the $TOTAL #cryptocurrency market into 🚀MANIA🚀 mode.

Zooms and full analysis in following tweets Image
#Bitcoin bull runs are composed of ↝ 5 Waves ↝
➚ Wave 1: finds resistance at 0.618 #GoldenRatio
➘ Wave 2: finds support near #BTC halving
➚ Wave 3: breaches above 2.618 Golden Fib level
➘ Wave 4: finds support at 1.618 #GoldenRatio
➚ Wave 5: tops out multiples above Wave 4 ImageImageImageImage
When you compare these to the psychological stages of a bubble applied to the long-term #Bitcoin chart, you can see that Wave 1

➚ ➘ Waves 1 and 2: Occur during STEALTH Phase
➚ ➘ Waves 3 and 4: Initiate and concludes the AWARENESS Phase
➚ Wave 5: is the MANIA Phase Image
When comparing seasonality, we can see that the cyclical #Bitcoin bull run ➘ Wave 4 correction concludes with a Bullish Hammer Reversal Candlestick ➚ on the 1 Month chart
This July Bullish Hammer Reversal Candlestick ➚ means that H2 is the true #Bitcoin Mania phase
If you're not familiar with the #Bitcoin #GoldenRatio and the key support and resistance it plays, here is some information about the 1.618 level:
To those of you asking "when top"? The answer is: when mania is no longer sustainable.
I expect this to be above the 5X 2Y MA. See:
Adding an LTC comparison to the cycle analysis ...

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More from @misconfig_exe

@misconfig_exe Profile picture
Jan 21, 2023
Assume in February 2020, at the height of markets before the Covid crash, you knew the crash was coming, and had the option of putting your entire portfolio into S&P 500, GOLD, SILVER, or BITCOIN.
Which one would have fared best to today?
S&P 500 from pre-pandemic highs to today:
-32% 2020 crash
+107% 2020-2021 rally from bottom
+43% 2020-2021 Feb to top
-25% 2022 correction top to bottom
+18% from Feb 2020 to today Image
GOLD from pre-pandemic highs to today:
-5% 2020 crash
+36% 2020 rally from bottom
+28% 2020-2021 Feb to top
-19% 2020-2022 correction top to bottom
+21% from Feb 2020 to today Image
Read 6 tweets
@misconfig_exe Profile picture
Apr 2, 2022
I wrote out a long thread on this and hit the [X] on the tab instead of the tab itself to share the conclusion, and lost my draft.
So, here's the final image without commentary
#bitcoin
I'll say this. Pearson's R of ~0.95 is pretty key.
Some images borrowed from mathisfun.com
This trendline approximates normal distribution where the average price where 50% of data is above and 50% of data is below the trendline.
Read 8 tweets
@misconfig_exe Profile picture
Mar 30, 2022
#Bitcoin and TOTAL #crypto market 1Q charts -- each candlestick is 3 Months

What does this tell us about the market? Let's dive in - following tweets.

1/9
The current 3M candle (1 day until close) is in the form of a BULLish "Long Lower Shadow".
Long shadows (wicks) especially without a wick on the opposite end (I'll touch on that) often mean trend reversal.
2/9
Taking a look at the prior candle, it also formed a long-shadow, but in the opposite direction. While the close was higher than the open, it still formed a BEARish Long Upper Shadow.
3/9
Read 11 tweets
@misconfig_exe Profile picture
Dec 17, 2021
The #BTC 200D MA (200-day moving average of price) is an important level for understanding #Bitcoin.
I think the $BTC 2Y MA and its 5x multiple are more valuable long-term, but mid-term the 200MA is worth paying attention to.
Here's my perspective 👇[THREAD]👇 Image
From #Bitcoin's introduction in 2009 until its first halving, $BTC stayed above the 200D MA period until its first bear market period. The 200D MA served as resistance, but breaking above it led to prices higher than the 200D MA breakdown the previous year, signaling new 🆙trend Image
In the next #Bitcoin era, the first after the halving at the end of 2012, $BTC rose rapidly and parabolically, blowing off early and testing the 200D MA for support to continue the bull run. (cont) Image
Read 23 tweets
@misconfig_exe Profile picture
Dec 17, 2021
Recent Amazon Web Services issues resulted in outages for food delivery apps, as well as some internet-"enabled"™ vacuums and pet food-dispensers.
This is reminiscent of Cory Doctorow's prescient story "Unauthorized Bread" which explores how the future of internet-of-things may affect society

arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/01…
... her toaster wouldn’t accept her bread. She held the slice in front of it and waited for the screen to show her a thumbs-up emoji, but instead, it showed her the head-scratching face and made a soft brrt. She waved the bread again. Brrt.

“Come on.” Brrt.
[...]
Read 8 tweets
@misconfig_exe Profile picture
Dec 15, 2021
Not too long ago, people said that another blow-off top was inevitable for Bitcoin.
Then, people said that because so many people believed it, it was unlikely to happen.
Now, fewer and fewer people believe in a blow-off top.
Based on above logic, this makes a blow-off more likely
@TechDev_52 -- in ref to some comments back and forth we've had lately
Reading some of the responses to this ... Logic might be hard for some of you. Studying it would be valuable for your life.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoic_log…
Read 5 tweets

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