Thread by @althecat

It appears that @PowerUSAID heard the request from Addis media (e.g. @GetachewSS) to hold a press conference and the transcript has now been published.

It is revealing in interesting ways and a lot more diplomatic than her recent tweets/videos.
usaid.gov/news-informati…

Some initial thoughts:
- She stays within her role as Secretary of @USAID, focusing on humanitarian issues.
- She warns about dangerous rhetoric without being offensive.
- She says she expects to meet with @AbiyAhmedAli soon.
- She refers to HoA envoy Jeffrey Feltman.

She took four questions. All of which addressed the TPLF directly.

In her answers she is more critical of the TPLF than she has been previously, and that is what this thread will focus on.

She was not asked about and does not mention the alleged #HumeraMassacre

Most of this thread will be direct quotes from her:

"It's great for me to be back here in Ethiopia, a country that has long been a strong partner and regional anchor."

"I want the Ethiopian people to know that we seek to engage with you and with your government on the basis of a set of values, not to play favorites or to pick sides during a conflict."

"Values like, there is no military solution to an internal conflict. Values like, all parties should end hostilities and agree to an immediate ceasefire, and to begin talks about reconciliation and troop and militia withdrawal from neighboring regions."

"The U.S. is watching with alarm as a conflict that began in Tigray is now [spreading]. We now estimate that there are roughly 76,000 internally displaced persons in Afar and 150,000 internally displaced persons in Amhara after TPLF military expansion into neighboring provinces."

^^ this is a direct reference to the TPLF's offensive being the cause of IDPs. She follows this immediately with >>

"Other values, values like humanitarian aid workers should be free to do their jobs and never be targeted, attacked, or harassed, and they should have unhindered access to the desperate Ethiopian people whose lives they are trying to save."

[The ordering of these two paragraphs is important as it acknowledges that the primary cause of the humanitarian crisis is TPLF military action.]

"...with the Minister of Peace just now, I stressed these values, called yet again for a cessation of hostilities and unfettered humanitarian access, and reiterated the United States' care and concern for the people of Ethiopia, no matter their identity or affiliation."

>> She then talks about the significant @USAID contributions to Ethiopia before concluding her prepared statement >>

"These investments are just a small reflection of our commitment to the people of Ethiopia. As I said at the beginning, we remain committed to engaging this country based on a set of values and working together to secure an immediate and lasting peace."

Question 1. from @AFP is a curly one, directly addressing the issue of genocide, Sec. Powers has made numerous remarks about previously.

"As an authority on genocide, what do you think when you hear that kind of language from the head of the Ethiopian government? And what would you have said to Prime Minister Abiy had you been given the chance to meet with him today?"

@PowerUSAID : "..words matter... it's extremely important all parties ... come to the table and move away from an increasingly ratcheted up set of accusations and counter accusations and focus instead on the dialogue that is going to be needed for an inclusive peace.."

Q2: "...the other thing in the meantime is access to the Tigray region to deliver humanitarian aid. So who is really blocking humanitarian aid to reach Tigray according to your assessments?"

Another great question.

There are two parts to the initial answer.

A: "So, as you know, Special Envoy Jeff Feltman is working tirelessly around the clock, along with other international partners and in constant dialogue with the parties here on the ground to promote the cause of peace."

A2: @PowerUSAID "of course I stressed the U.S. position ... support for an immediate cessation of hostilities, our appeal and demand to the parties to remove themselves from territory along the lines of what you saw me, and the State Department and others speak to yesterday."

I think there is some deliberate signalling here to soften the demands for Ethiopia to withdraw from Welkaite which are the source of a great deal of frustration in Tigray, without directly doing so.

The first part of the answer re-introduces HoA Jeffrey Feltman to this debate, and to me suggests he has taken over. The final phrase confirms this:
"But my focus has been on the 2nd part of your question, here, given -- and our Special Envoy's role on the political track."

In effect it appears that @PowerUSAID has been subbed off and Special Envoy Jeffrey Feltman is back in the hot seat on this crisis. As some will know he has recently been back in the region. Also he doesn't tweet.

I know that many Ethiopians are skeptical of his bona fides. But FWIW my review of his record suggests he is ideal for the job, and as a former UN political chief can play a role as bridge between the UN and US around the issue.

That this job involves dealing with @reda_getachew so anything could still happen. But that was always the case.

@PowerUSAID's answer then moves on to a discussion about deliveries which is quite long and attached in full. The important bit to me is the final paragraph.

"TPLF moving militarily... in proximity to roads the convoys need to pass on, is going to obstruct access. I mean, the roads have to be secure.... this is an appeal to all parties to allow unhindered humanitarian access to put the needs of civilians in desperate need, first."

Here we have a clear unambiguous confirmation too long missing from U.S. public statements, that the TPLF offensive is a major cause of the humanitarian crisis + another request to them to cease hostilities.

Question we could see as a question on behalf of Ethiopia, it has a great preamble.

"So do you believe -- also do you recognize the belligerent act of TPLF against some regions and neighboring regions specially Amhara [inaudible]. Thanks so much."

And here @PowerUSAID answers partially, and then flips to talks a bit more about @USAID and what it is doing for Ethiopia. But she comes back.

"We in the US have made it very clear to the TPLF leadership a cease fire and political negotiations are the only way to end this conflict. We’ve also reminded them the mistrust and animosity that many Ethiopians feel toward the TPLF is rooted in actions during their 27-yr rule."

For me this is the lead quote out of this press conference. An unequivocal request to the TPLF to join the ceasefire and an acknowledgement of the deep pain Ethiopia is feeling. It is in short the breakthrough with the U.S. that so many Ethiopians have been waiting for.

While that will probably raise a few eye-brows, and is possibly a bit of an overstatement, it is definitely significant progress. Especially when accompanied by the removal of @PowerUSAID from the driving seat on this crisis - if this is indeed the case. We shall see.

@PowerUSAID continues: "I will continue, as will colleagues here & in Washington, not to pick sides.. but to look at principles in human rights law, in international humanitarian law, and to appeal to parties who are ignoring or violating those principles, to meet standards."

This to my mind is what Ethiopia has been asking for.

To be treated as any nation would be before the international community when faced by an internal military threat. The law is pretty clear in this area, notwithstanding recent musings otherwise.

In the final part of her answer she reiterates another sound piece of common sense, namely that the U.S. will not be walking away from this, and will continue to say what it thinks needs to be said when it needs to be said.

Which brings us to the final question from @Reuters.
This one also has 2 parts: a) The TPLF talks and Tigrayan detainees; and b) regarding @PowerUSAID's meeting or not with @AbiyAhmedAli.

@Reuters @PowerUSAID @AbiyAhmedAli [META: And its also her longest answer. So please bare with me. Its pleasing to see that there are so many of you following this thread :)]

.@PowerUSAID's answer here contains I think some regret. She may not think this. But as we all know this trip did not go well. And she is trying to reset the U.S. Ethiopian relationship both at a leadership and at a popular level.

But of course actions speak louder than words.

"So really to your questions, the sum of your questions, my emphasis was really on these urgent humanitarian needs. And again, the assurance that I got was that the Ethiopian government is committed to the welfare of civilians in Tigray."

To me this paragraph contains a pearl along with the criticism, one that probably relates to the coinciding visit by UN Humanitarian Chief Martin Griffiths, who is British.
I.E. A concession this is a UN led job - the humanitarian mission - and the U.S. role is to support this.

"I think the point, which is the point that I would have conveyed to Prime Minister Abiy, and which the Minister assured me that she would convey is that humanitarian actors have been warning of severe malnutrition risks in Tigray now for many months."

"I also asked the Minister to convey to Prime Minister Abiy -- who I'm sure I will have the chance to meet soon. As you know, he was not in the capital today on my day here. But we are really worried about humanitarian aid workers..."

"I think in this polarized time of escalating rhetoric and even, it looks like, escalating violence on the ground, it becomes so much more important that leaders use their platforms to de-escalate the rhetoric."

And that's all.

In summary we have a reset in the U.S. Ethiopian relationship around the Tigray War. Words of reassurance, and an end to judgmental rhetoric.

But most important of all:
- UN will lead on humanitarian side - USAID in support.
+
- US/UN coordination on IC political/peace effort.

Next moves:
- Ethiopian Govt. has to decide whether it still has any faith in the IC at all.
- TPLF have to decide whether they really want to push this all the way to war.

Based on @AbiyAhmedAli's Nobel Speech I remain hopeful he will have sufficient patience to avoid war.

Which is not to say there isn't already a war. But this could get much much worse.

But then again I am always hopeful.

Either way I am certain that Ethiopia will Prevail.

/ENDS

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