Weekly French vaccination thread.

A reasonably good week for the Fr. vaccination programme – an average of 330,022 first jabs a day, down on last week but excellent for August and still nearly double the rate before Macron announced the “health pass” on 12 July. 1/8
Protests against the health pass will continue across France today. It will be a test of the staying power for the disparate protesters. Will they be able to maintain or increase last week’s 200,000 (all Fr) turnout? Or will a) the holiday and b) the rain dampen their ardour? 2/8
The Conseil Constitutionnel has approved, with small tweaks, the health pass and legal compulsion on health workers to be vaxxed by 15 Sept. From Mon access to bars/restos/long-haul transport etc is limited to those with a recent neg test/recovery from C19/or full-vaccination
3/8
The health pass has now been approved by both houses of parliament (inc. the anti-Macron majority in the Senate). It has been passed by the Fr version of US Supreme Court. And yet protesters still accuse Macron of being a “dictator” and picture him with a Hitler moustache.
4/8
The protesters might contemplate the following figure. A study by Drees, the research arm of the health ministry, calculates that 87% of the 1,458 Covid patients in acute care in Fr are unvaccinated. Almost 80% of Fr adults have now had at least 1 jab. Do the sums, numpties. 5/8
Signs continue that the 4th (Delta) wave of Covid may be cresting in France (see @nicolasberrod graphs). New cases (av. 22, 201 a day) and the incidence rate are edging up but much less rapidly. Hosp/acute care numbers are growing but reflect the surge in cases 2-3 weeks ago
6/8
As of last night, Fr. had 1st-vaxxed 44,413,560 over 12's – 8m since Macron announced the health pass. 1st jabs this week fell to 330,022 a day, after 380,000 last week. Doctolib, the booking site, predicts the slump will last until 15 Aug when some holidaymakers return. 7/8
But France remains on target to hit 50m first jabs by the end of this month (and to overtake the UK total by circa 16 Aug).
It’s a strange summer – and not just because of the weather.
8/8

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More from @john_lichfield

4 Aug
Weekly French Covid thread

The upward curve of new cases – almost all Delta variant now - has flattened for the 1st time since late June. Hospital admissions, acute cases and deaths are surging but that reflects the boom in infections in previous weeks.
1/12
Overall, it’s good news. Imagine you’re on a beach on a calm day. Breakers are coming ashore because of a gale yesterday. If new cases have truly peaked (still unclear), the 4th wave in Fr. may be less dramatic than feared. This seems to match the pattern in UK, NL, P, Sp.
2/12
New cases in the last 7 days averaged 21,788, after 19,436 last week. Cases had previously been doubling weekly. The incidence rate (IR) nationwide is stable at 225 (cases per 100,000 people in 7 days). The IR in 20-somethings – previously calamitous – has fallen sharply. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
31 Jul
Weekly French vaccination thread.

A good week for the Fr. vax programme – an av. of 381,131 first jabs a day, back to the heady levels of May. In the last 4 days, the figure has been 400,000+. 1st shots have more than doubled since Macron wielded his big stick on 12 July.
1/12 Image
Protests by a minority also continue. Over 150,000 people are predicted to take part in 100 marches or demos against the health pass today. Will the numbers exceed last week’s 160,000 across Fr.? Or will protests be blunted by the start of Fr’s peak holiday month tomorrow? 2/12
The 4th (Delta) wave of the Covid pandemic is gaining ground (over 21,000 cases a day) but the increase is slightly less rapid than last week. Deaths/acute cases are starting to rise from a low base. Over 1,000 people are in acute care (up from the high 800’s 10 days ago). 3/12 Image
Read 12 tweets
21 Jul
Weekly French Covid thread
The 4th wave of Covid, the Delta wave, is here - ahead of schedule. Cases have more than doubled - up 129% - in 7 days. Four fifths of Fr cases are now Delta. The government is alarmed. New restrictive rules re likely in the worst-hit areas. 1/12
The health defence council is meeting under President Macron’s chairmanship this morning. PM Jean Castex will make a statement later. The government feels that it can no longer wait for the effect of accelerated vaccinations/the widened health pass from 1 August. 2/12
Likely measures are a return to outdoor masks and 11pm resto/bar closures in worst-afflicted départements (clustered around the coast). This has already happened in Pyrénées Orientales (Perpignan), where the incidence rate has leaped to 372.7 (4X the national rate of 83.9) 3/12
Read 13 tweets
17 Jul
Weekly vax thread.
Usually this Saturday thread is about the French vax programme. I’ll come to that; lots of news on that.
But I’ll start with the biggest news of the day – the bizarre UK govt U-turn forcing quarantine on travellers returning to England from France. 1/12
This weird decision was supposedly taken because the Beta (South African) virus is exploding in France. It’s not. It’s rising slightly in European France and heavily present in the Indian Ocean island of Réunion, which is part of France and counts in the French figures. 2/12
In sum: the Johnson govt is abandoning social restrictions in England on Monday although Covid cases in UK are booming BUT imposing restrictions on travellers from Fr because of a problem which the French govt doesn’t think is a problem. Diverting attention? Looking tough? 3/12
Read 12 tweets
14 Jul
Weekly French Covid thread

Two numbers justify Macron’s big stick approach to vaccination in his TV address on Monday.
1. There were 6,950 C19 cases yesterday, bringing the daily av. to 4,324 (70% up in a week).
2. 2.5m people have signed up for 1st jabs since he spoke.
1/10
There was an instant impact yesterday – a new record of 792,339 jabs of all kinds and 269,776 1st shots (which had been running at below 200,000 a day).
The Doctolib site now reckons that France will cross the threshold of 40m 1st shots (circa 77% of adults) in 10 days.
2/10
The original target date for France to reach 40m first shots was tomorrow but the government foolishly put it back last month to the end of August. The new target may now be reached five weeks early. Coercion works, it seems.
3/10.
Read 10 tweets
12 Jul
President Macron went further than expected in actions to check the Delta variant in his TV address tonight. There will be compulsory vaccination for health workers and others in contact with the vulnerable but he warned that compulsory jabs for ALL may also be considered. 1/4
The digital health pass demanded for access to big public events (double vaccinaton, proof of recovery from Covid or negative test) will be extended in 2 stages – to all events with 50+ people from 22 July and to cafes, restos, long-distance trains/buses and hosps from Aug.
2/4
To encourage people to get vaxxed, there will be charges for Covid tests from Sept. On other issues, Macron said he would revive pensions reform shelved because of the pandemic – but only when the health crisis was over. In other words, not before next April’s election. 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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