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Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
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8 Aug, 7 tweets, 3 min read
⚫️🐦 NSW wild cases

Sunday total wilds: 72 (full + part)

🐦Full wild: 46
🏃‍♂️Part wild: 26
🏠 Iso: 86
❔ TBD: 104

**Have made changes to this reporting. Please see footnote at end**

New daily wilds -

#covidsydney #covid19nsw #COVID19Aus #covidnsw
7-day trend total wilds: 78 (full + part)

🐦Full wild: 48
🏃‍♂️Part wild: 30
🏠 Iso: 86
❔ TBD: 79
14-day sum: 1001 (full + part)

🐦Full wild: 648
🏃‍♂️Part wild: 353
🏠 Iso: 86
❔ TBD: 998
** Change to reporting -

It's becoming clear TBDs are roughly consistent with the sample of cases we already know

Previously, we called all TBDs possible wilds bc we didn't understand why they were TBDs, and this registered worst case scenario ...
But now it seems more sensible to think of the cases announced as a sample -

Status known: 158
Status TBD: 104

Among status known -
🐦Full wild: 29%
🏃‍♂️Part wild: 17%
🏠 Iso: 54%

So roughly apply those percentages to the TBDs
Will factor this sample analysis into future reporting

Separate thread coming about TBDs

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Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
8 Aug
Remember this PDF?

It gives the impression the % of cases interviewed within one day of notification is in freefall

67% this week, down from 95% last week!

But that's not the case

I thought it seemed a little weird and did some digging

#covid19nsw #covid19aus

1/3
It turns out that figure is revised upwards each week

When the PDF is published, some cases are still inside their 24-hr notification period and yet to be interviewed

Once each case passes its 24 hours, the numbers are finalised and updated in the next dashboard
The PDF above is from the following week. See how the 67% is now 93% (the figure in brackets in the middle)?

So here's a look at how the figures are initially reported, then revised upwards each week
Read 6 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
8 Aug
⚫️NSW cases Under Investigation by 🧭 LGA
(+Saturday +Sunday = Total)

1. Lock-in LGAs (Penrith added*)
Canterbury-Bankstown +28 +29 =445
Fairfield +17 +10 =314
Cumberland +21 +20 =254
Liverpool -2 +10 =154
Blacktown +14 +11 =124
Campbelltown +7 +5 =79

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus
Parramatta +18 +3 =79
Penrith +18 +11 =68
Georges River -1 +4 =15

2. Lockdown LGAs outside Greater Sydney -
Armidale Regional +1 +2 =3
Maitland +2 +0 =3
Newcastle +1 +2 =3
Lake Macquarie +0 +2 =2
Port Stephens +0 +2 =2
Goulburn Mulwaree +0 +0 =1^
3. Lockdown LGAs in Greater Sydney
Sydney +4 +2 =25
Inner West +2 +0 =18
Bayside +5 +1 =17
Camden +0 +2 =15
Strathfield +2 +1 =12
The Hills Shire +1 +1 =11
Waverley +1 +0 =10
Burwood +3 +1 =9
Sutherland Shire +1 +1 =6
Canada Bay -1 +1 =5
Ryde +1 +2 =5
Randwick +0 +0 =4
Read 6 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
8 Aug
NSW Wild TBDs - status confirmed 🧵1/8

Each day ~30-40% of new cases are Wild TBD

Surveillance reports fill in the blanks but the data is 2-3 weeks old

Here's what they tell us ...

1. High Risk / Full Wild (daily) -

#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #COVID19Aus
2/8. These charts show data from 2 sources -

- Surveillance report (solid line)
- Daily announcements - pressers / tweets (Dashed line)

The solid line extends to 25/7 (latest date in surveillance reports)

The dashed line extends to today

2. Medium Risk / Part Wild (daily) -
3/8. Surveillance Reports categorise Wild data as follows:

- High risk
- Medium risk
- Low risk

These fit perfectly with the 3 categories we use:

- Full wild
- Part wild
- Isolation

3. Low Risk / Isolation (daily) -
Read 8 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
6 Aug
⚫️🧭 NSW Unlinked cases

84% of today's unlinked cases in 8 lock-in LGAs (consistent trend)

Lock-in LGAs -

Canterbury-Bankstown +32 = 388 ⚠️27% of total
Liverpool +25 = 146 ⚠️Daily record
Cumberland +22 = 213 ⚠️Daily record
Fairfield +12 = 287

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus
Blacktown +9 = 99
Campbelltown +5 = 67
Georges River +2 = 12
Parramatta +0 =58

🧭 Lockdown LGAs (Sydney)-

Penrith +8 = 39 ⚠️29 in last 4 days
Sydney +3 = 19
Inner West +1 = 16
Camden +2 =13
Bayside -1 =11
Strathfield +1 = 9
Ryde +1 = 2
Northern Beaches +1 = 1
Waverley 9
The Hills Shire 9
Burwood 5
Canada Bay 5
Randwick 4
Sutherland Shire 4
Woollahra 2
No local LGA data +3 = 10

🧭Lockdown LGAs (outside Sydney) -

Central Coast +1 = 3
Wollongong 5
Wollondilly 3
Blue Mountains 1
Maitland 1
Read 4 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
4 Aug
1,215 Cases 🔎 Under Investigation in ⚫️NSW
= 30% of outbreak cases (4,056)

🧭 Where they live

1. Lock-in LGAs -
Canterbury-Bankstown +27 = 315
Cumberland +18 = 170
Liverpool +16 = 119
Blacktown +8 = 88
Campbelltown +7 = 56
Parramatta +4 = 49
...
#covid19nsw #covid19aus
Fairfield +3 = 269
Georges River -1 = 10

2. Lockdown LGAs -
Penrith +8 = 27
Camden +3 = 10
Unknown + 2 = 7
Sydney +1 = 15
Inner West +1 = 12
Waverley +1 = 9
Strathfield +1 = 8
Wollongong +1 = 4
Bayside +1 = 12
Randwick -1 = 4
Northern Beaches -4 = 0
Ryde -4 = 0
...
Lane Cove -2 = 0
Willoughby -2 = 0
(no change)
The Hills Shire 9
Burwood 5
Sutherland Shire 4
Canada Bay 3
Wollondilly 3
Woollahra 2
Wingecarribee 2
Blue Mountains 1
Central Coast 1
Goulburn Mulwaree 1
Read 5 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
4 Aug
Is this outbreak under control?

That's the question* we're trying to answer with all this data

So let's look at Canterbury-Bankstown and Cumberland

1. The curve via @datapossum - no bend

1/6
*Q articulated perfectly by @DeadInLongRun
#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #covid19aus
2. Daily case numbers via @DeadInLongRun

2/6
3. Daily transmission sources

📍 Canterbury-Bankstown
All local: 642 (+74 today)
Under Investigation: 315 (+27 today)

3/6
Read 7 tweets

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